30-Year Mortgage Rate Charges Above 4 Percent

2018 has started in a similar fashion to how 2017 finished.

The average 30-year, fixed mortgage rate charged to 4.04 percent this week, up from 3.99 percent the week prior, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®). The 15-year, fixed rate averaged 3.49 percent, up from 3.44 percent the week prior, while the five-year, Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable rate averaged 3.46 percent, the same as the week prior.

“The U.S. weekly average for the 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose above 4 percent for the first time since last summer to 4.04 percent in this week’s survey,” says Len Kiefer, deputy chief economist at Freddie Mac. “This is the highest weekly average for the 30-year fixed rate mortgage since May of 2017. Some may be wondering if this is the last time we’ll see a three handle on the 30-year mortgage rate. Never say never, but inflation is firming, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book indicates broad-based economic growth, and labor markets are tightening. This means upward pressure on long-term rates, like the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, is building.”

If rates continue as indicated, the home buying season may come early as potential homebuyers look to jump on the last set of historically low rates. From our perspective; all charts point to several Fed' increases in 2018 and 5% mortgage rates on the horizon.

Why Fall Is the Best Time of Year to Buy a Home

Few people know Fall is arguably the best time of year to buy a new home. The weather becomes cooler, the leaves begin to change, football season begins, and pumpkin-flavored everything is in abundant supply. But there's another great reason to love fall that might be less obvious...it's the best time of year to purchase a home.

Prices Are Typically Lower
The concept that buyers can get a better bang for their buck in the fall has been a popular notion for some time, but two recent reports validated that line of thought with data from actual home sales. According to a report by RealtyTrac, sales prices are typically 2.6% below fair market value during October — a steeper discount than any other month of the year. Another report by NerdWallet found that sales prices drop about 2.96% from summer to fall, which is roughly an $8,300 discount for the median home. It's also worth noting that while listing prices don't decrease much, sales prices do, and that's the price that counts for potential buyers.

There's Less Competition
The majority of people buy a home in spring or summer, when inventory is traditionally high. This gives families time to make their move before the school year starts, but the tradeoff is that buyers are faced with strong competition and often pay higher than asking price during that time. People who buy in fall, however, have less competition, and sellers are more motivated. This means more negotiating power for the buyer, which often results in a better deal.

There's Still Inventory
It's true that the inventory of homes for sale is at its peak during spring and summer, but when you buy in the fall, there's still a decent supply of homes left to choose from. Buying a home in the fall gives you the best of both worlds — lower prices and less competition but still enough inventory to find the home you want.

If you're serious about buying a home, doing so this fall may save you money or help you afford more than you expect. Plus, with interest rates on the rise, the longer you wait, the less buying power you may have. Click here to learn more about the impact that rising interest rates have on affordability. NMLS#1043983

The number of homes for sale is a problem; here's what to do about it!

In almost every major city in Texas there is solid demand from home buyers who struggle to find a home (any home) that meets both their housing and affordability requirements. This is especially true for first time home buyers. It’s a situation that requires both patience and creative solutions.

On the other hand, this may be an excellent time for you to explore options that may not be on your short list. Here are a few suggestions;

1.Look at a fixer-upper. That run-down house that’s been sitting on the market for months may be a diamond in the rough for a buyer with the vision to see its potential, especially if you have the time and skills to participate in renovations. Before making an offer, however, encourage your agents to assist in estimating renovation costs and identifying people in the trades to assist them. There are several different loan programs which make financing the improvements easy.

2. Buy a teardown and rebuild. If a thought of a fixer-upper doesn't excite you, perhaps a teardown, or a vacant lot, and building a new home. Fortunately, there are many ways to accomplish this without the expense of hiring an architect or a custom home builder. Learn who is supplying prefabricated and modular homes to your market—options that aren’t only economical and energy-efficient, but also increasingly popular with younger buyers.

3. Consider a duplex. While many don't love the idea of managing a property (much less a neighbor) the financial upside is hard to ignore. Improvements made to the property may be tax deductible and the additional income will never hurt.

Considering Buying or Refinancing a Home? Read This....

According to a survey conducted by J.D. Power, 27% of new homeowners ultimately came to regret their choice of lender. Twenty seven percent. The major reason for the dissatisfaction was overall poor customer experience. That's pretty vague so let's dive further. A lack of communication or unmet expectations (again back to communication) topped the "poor customer experience" sub list. Other regrets listed included pressure from the lender to choose a particular product/loan and not closing on time. Communication is a two way street. As a homeowner or potential homebuyer, you can remove some of the tension and turmoil of home loan process by carefully vetting potential lenders. Here are 5 questions to ask potential lenders before you make a commitment.

1. What mortgage programs do you offer? In many cases, choosing the best loan for your specific financial situation requires working with a lender who offers a wide array of loans. You don’t want to work with a lender who tries to push you into one loan simply because that’s the only option from their limited selection. Ask them if they regularly handle the type of loan you are looking for. If the type of loan you are looking for is more specific than say, a conventional fixed-rate mortgage, a little more expertise is useful — and in some cases, it might be necessary. An uncommon home loan like a United States Department of Agriculture loan, for instance, must go through an approved lender.

2. Inquire about the qualifications for the home loan you are seeking. There may be two lenders who offer the same type of loan, but their minimum requirements could differ. For instance, Department of Veterans Affairs loans require a minimum credit score of 620, but a lender might require a minimum score of 640. Comparison-shop. Don’t assume the same type of loan means the same terms.

3. Ask your lender to provide an estimate of the rates and fees expected to pay. Important note here; If you have taxes and insurance tied to your mortgage payment, an initial estimate will never guarantee your final, out-of-pocket expense. Numbers will change as things like title are received or surveys are approved or ordered. That said, it can be a solid jumping-off point for evaluating lenders. If the loan programs are the same, a helpful starting point is to compare the interest rate and total origination costs. It is important to know rates fluctuate, so try comparing lenders on the same day to get the most accurate mortgage rate comparisons. Speaking of rates....

4. Ask when you may be able to do a rate lock. As we mentioned above, mortgage rates can change multiple times a day. They can be as fluid as the stock market. Be sure to ask about the associated fees, including how much it costs to extend the lock should it expire before closing.

5. What is the time estimate for processing my home loan? This is critically important if you are selling a home or coordinating the end of a current lease with a new home purchase. Under the TRID guidelines, it's vitally important you receive your initial closing disclosure four business days before your closing date. In short, get the key dates of the appraisal and underwriting approval. Of course, it’s always a good idea to build in a small buffer if you can — and not just because loan preparation can take longer than expected. Along these lines, make sure you explain that you expect communication in a straightforward and timely manner.

Low Interest Rate Train is Leaving the Station

If you currently are or have been considering refinancing your home loan but have put if off because life happens, your opportunity may be coming to a close. Trump's victory speech in the early hours of Wednesday included a pledge to spend on rebuilding America's infrastructure — a plan that should stir economic growth and mean substantial new debt. These comments might be what the US economy needs to get moving again after 4+ years of relatively flat growth. They are also inflationary in nature. Which is bad for borrowing rates.

This new exacerbates the fact, mortgage application volume fell 1.2 percent last week from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association and was down nearly 11 percent in the past four weeks, as rates have already climbed from historic lows.

As of this morning (November 10, 2016), the 10-year note was yielding 2.07 percent, the highest level since Jan. 14, and the 30-year was at 2.86, also a January high in afternoon trading. It was the biggest one day jump in the 10-year yield since Aug. 11, 2011.

"Globally, rates have begun to creep upwards as investors anticipate less aggressive monetary policies from central banks, and U.S. rates are being pushed upwards in response," said Michael Fratantoni, the MBA's chief economist. "Additionally, new data shows continued positive signals regarding the job market and rising inflation, indicating that the Fed is likely to hike in December and will continue increasing rates next year."

In closing, the interest rates in the mid-3’s for government loan programs, such as FHA & VA, could be gone as quickly as months end as upward pressure on the 10yr gains momentum. If, as many expect, President-Elect Trump rolls out the trillion dollar infrastructure plan, we may very well be looking at interest rates in the upper 5% range by this time next year.

The Fiscal Cliff

Following numerous requests from our clients, we thought we would put some effort on summarizing the tax related measures which resulted from the eleventh hour Fiscal Cliff agreement. These new laws are detailed in Senate Amendment to H.R. 8 and are collectively called The American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012. For those unfamiliar with the Fiscal Cliff, hopefully this may provide valuable background information. We now await the political brinkmanship associated with the negotiations to raise the U.S. Debt Ceiling. Two New Taxes for 2013 Two new taxes go into effect starting January 1, 2013: 1. A 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT) applies to individuals, estates and trusts that have unearned investment income above certain threshold amounts. Net Investment Income for the purpose of calculating this tax includes interest, dividends, capital gains, rental and royalty income, non-qualified annuities, income from businesses involved in trading of financial instruments or commodities and pass-through income from a passive business. The NIIT does not apply to municipal bond income. For an individual, the NIIT is equal to 3.8% of the lesser of two amounts: i. An individual’s net investment income or ii. The excess of the individual’s modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) over the threshold amount ($200,000 for individual taxpayers and $250,000 for married couples filing jointly). 2. A 0.9% additional Medicare Tax applies to individual’s wages and self-employment income that exceeds the threshold amount based on the individual’s filing status. Ordinary Income Tax There will be no change in Federal income tax rates for taxpayers earning less than $400,000 ($450,000 for joint filers). Individuals earning above this threshold, will now pay 39.6% on marginal income above $400,000 ($450,000 for joint filers). Capital Gains and Qualified Dividends Tax Effective January 1, 2013, the top tax rate on long term capital gains and qualified dividends reverts back to 20% on gains for taxpayers above the $400,000 ($450,000 joint) income threshold. For taxpayers below these thresholds, the 15% rate remains. This tax rate increase, along with the Medicare tax, will result in a top effective tax rate of 23.8% for long term capital gains and dividends. Similarly, short term capital gains will be taxed at ordinary rates plus the 3.8% NIIT, for an effective top rate of 43.4%. Estate, Gift and Generation Skipping Transfer Tax The credit amount remains at $5 million per individual donor and continues to be inflation-indexed from 2010 (rounded in $10,000 increments). The inflation adjusted credit was $5.12 million in 2012 and is expected to be $5.25 million in 2013. An important component of the new legislation is the reunification of the gift and estate tax credit amount. In other words, the $5.25 million credit is available for use with lifetime gifts or estate transfers at death. The top transfer tax rate on gifts exceeding the credit amount has increased from 35% to 40%. Phase Limitation on Itemized Deductions Before 2010 itemized deductions for taxpayers above a certain income level were partially phased out, thus increasing income taxes as a consequence of reduced deductions. In 2013, if a taxpayer’s Adjusted Gross Income (“AGI”) is above a threshold amount ($250,000 for individual taxpayers, $275,000 for head of households and $300,000 for joint filers), itemized deductions will be reduced by an amount equal to the lesser of 3% of the excess over the threshold or 80% of allowable deductions. Taxpayers apply 80% to the total of their itemized deductions other than the deductions for medical expenses, investment interest, casualty losses and thefts, and gambling losses. As a result of the phase-out of deduction for high income taxpayers, marginal effective tax rates are higher than marginal statutory rates for such taxpayers. Roughly speaking, the 3% reduction of a deduction against income taxed at 43.4% raises the tax rate on marginal income by 1.3 percentage points. Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) The new bill increases the AMT exemption amounts from $33,750 to $50,500 for individual filers and from $45,000 to $78,750 for joint filers, indexed for inflation from 2013. IRAs The Pension Protection Act of 2006 allowed a taxpayer to exclude from income, distributions of up to $100,000 to a qualified tax-exempt organization (i.e., a public charity but not a supporting organization or a donor advised fund) from a traditional IRA. This provision has been extended for 2012 through December 31, 2013. The distribution must be made directly to the public charity and the IRA owner must have attained age 70½. The distribution will be counted for purposes of the required minimum distributions from an IRA but will be ignored for purposes of computing the limitations on charitable deductions in the year of the gift. Notably, the $100,000 exclusion is per taxpayer so married taxpayers (with their own IRAs) may each take advantage of the provision. Moreover, this provision contains a transition rule, which allows a distribution made in January 2013 to qualify as a 2012 distribution and allows an IRA distribution made December 2012 to qualify if subsequently paid to a qualifying charity in January 2013 (and meeting all other requirements). Roth Conversions In 2012, only the distributable amount (i.e. IRA balances or 401(k) s where the owner has either separated from employment or is over 59½) in pre-tax retirement plans could be converted to Roth accounts. The new bill allows any amount in a non-Roth account to be converted to a Roth account in the same plan, whether or not the amount is distributable. The conversion from a pre-tax retirement plan to a Roth plan results in the recognition of taxable income on all the gains and income in the plan. Retroactive Extension of 100% Exclusion of Small Business Capital Gains Generally, non-corporate taxpayers may exclude 50% of the gain from the sale of small business stock acquired at original issue and held for more than five years. For stock acquired after February 17, 2009 but by September 27, 2010, the exclusion was increased to 75 percent. For stock acquired after September 27, 2010 and before January 1, 2011, the excluded amount was increased to 100%. The 2010 Tax Relief Act further extended the 100% exclusion through December 31, 2011. The new legislation retroactively extends the exclusion of 100% of the gain from Qualified Small Business Stock to stock acquired after September 27, 2010 and before January 1, 2014. Qualifying Small Business Stock is from a C-corporation whose gross assets do not exceed $50 million (including the proceeds received from the issuance of the stock) and who meets a specific active business requirement. The amount of gain eligible for the exclusion is limited to the greater of ten times the taxpayer’s basis in the stock or $10 million of gain from stock in that corporation. Other The personal exemption phase-out has been reinstated, which means that high income taxpayers will have to reduce the total of their personal exemptions by 2% for every $2,500 by which their annual gross income exceeds the threshold amount for their filing status ($250,000 for individual filers, $275,000 for head of households and $300,000 for joint filers), indexed for inflation from 2013.

How to ensure your home isn't under-insured

For many of our clients, the following information is view similarly to going to the dentist. That said, it's mission critical that your family review the following and please get with one of our agents for a policy review.

Fact is, most homeowners have insurance. All homeowners who have a mortgage must have insurance. The question is: do you have enough insurance? Will your policy cover you if the worst happens – if your house is totally destroyed and you need to rebuild?

According to the Insurance Information Institute’s 2011 Insurance Pulse Survey, nearly half (48 percent) of all homeowners in the U.S. believe the insured value of their home is linked to its market value.

“They are two different things,” says Michael Barry, the institute’s vice president of media relations. “When it comes to buying homeowners insurance, you have to look at the insured value – what would it cost to rebuild my home in its current location with comparable construction materials if I were to have a total loss? And that number does not represent the market value.”

With home prices in the flat, it’s easy to assume that you can save money by lowering the insurance coverage. Unfortunately, it doesn’t work that way. The cost of building materials – copper, lumber, steel, concrete – have all gone up dramatically the last few years.

“It’s truly unfortunate that people don’t understand market value versus replacement cost,” says Ned, the vice president of claims for a regional insurance company. He agreed to talk to me as long as I did not use his real name.

Ned told me about a recent claim for a house that burned to the ground and the homeowner was grossly under-insured. He had coverage for up to $350,000, but the estimated construction cost came in at $500,000. Ned says this customer was “one of the rare individuals who accepted responsibility” for the situation.

The insurance company did its best to help, but the new house did not have the quality of the original. The homeowner had to downgrade the kitchen appliances. Instead of granite countertops, he went with composite. He also had to settle for a lower-quality roof; one that was guaranteed for 30 years instead of 40.

Getting the right coverage is your responsibility. We advise reviewing your insurance coverage each year with our agents. Despite our reminders and email notifications, most people don’t do this.

Angie’s List recently polled its members and found that nearly one-third of those who responded hadn’t checked their home insurance policies for two years or more.

“This is your responsibility,” says Angie Hicks, the website’s founder. “Your insurance agent doesn’t know what you’ve done to your house. They don’t know if you added a deck or bought an expensive piece of jewelry. Only you know that information.”

So put this on your calendar to make sure you’re reviewing your policy at renewal time.

At the very least, you want to know what you have. Then you can tweak the policy or comparison shop. Make sure you don’t buy too much insurance. You don’t need to insure for the value of the land your house sits on.

According to the Insurance Information Institute, there are four elements that help you decide how much coverage to get:

- The cost to rebuild the structure.

- The cost to replace the contents.

- Additional living expenses if you have to move out during repairs.

- Your liability to others who might get hurt on your property.

If you’re looking to save money raise the deductible, don’t cut back on coverage. The Insurance Information Institute says increasing the deductible from $500 to $1,000 could reduce premiums by up to 25 percent.

Remember: the amount of money the policy will pay for contents and additional living expenses is typically based on the coverage of the structure.

It’s important to have a home inventory to show the insurance company if there is a loss. The free app MyHOME Scr.APP.book (available for iPhones and Android phones) from the National Association of Insurance Commissioners lets you quickly photograph, grab bar codes and serial numbers and store them digitally. There is also free software for your computer at knowyourstuff.org, a site run by the insurance industry.

We encourage you to spend time on both. It'll be time well spent.

Securities Lending – Share Hypothecation

For the last several months, Efinity Finanical has quietly grown in the Dallas Fort Worth market. Those clients already presently working with our advisors are well aware of the weekly commentary we publish. Last week's was so good we felt it should repost here on the Efinity Report. Enjoy.

Securities Lending – Share Hypothecation
One of the main issues facing the financial world today is the difficulty investors have estimating the effect that a specific financial issue, such as a 50% haircut on Greek bonds, may have on the global or domestic financial and banking system.

So why can’t the people who run the European Central bank, the U.S. Central Banks Federal Reserve and Wall Street estimate the probability and effect of a bank going out of business? It looks like the reason some banks are classed as “too big to fail” is the fact that no one knows what will happen if they DO fail!

The reason is the financial system is based on everyone lending and making promissory contracts with each other. The system has evolved to a highly leveraged point where very little real cash or collateral exists. Looking at ‘cash in the bank’ has been replaced by credit ratings and rates as means to judge the fiscal security of a loan to a counterparty.

Unfortunately, these ratings and loan rates can change quickly; confidence is especially ephemeral these days. Take Italy, for example, whose cost of borrowing has nearly doubled in a period of weeks. This means the capital held by banks in the form of Italian bonds has shrunk by nearly 50%.

European banks are currently levered by approximately 30 to 1 – for every $1 they have in actual capital, they have $30 in borrowings. U.S. banks are current around half that level.

Shorting the System
Another reason for high volatility is the increasing ability of financial firms to profit from betting against markets - Shorting. Probably the most infamous example was Goldman Sach’s $550 million fine relating to fraud charges over the shorting of (seeking to profit from betting against) mortgage securities they had previously profited from by advising clients to buy. The fund was called Abacus.

Securities Lending
Securities Lending, a.k.a. Share Hypothecation, is a little known method for large financial firms to leverage the financial system - proponents call it the lubrication of securities markets. It certainly facilitates increased short selling activity. It is estimated that $1.9 trillion of securities are out on loan every day.

Securities Lending allows a Wall Street firm to loan shares to another firm in return for both a transaction fee and collateral to cover the loan. Although this may sound ‘normal’ among large companies, many Wall Street investor custody agreements include securities lending clauses allowing the firm to lend out shares owned by retail investors.

Yes, investment banks and the like regularly take their investors’ shares and loan them to companies looking to short the market.

For any financial relationship you have, check to see if the company participates in Securities Lending. If they do and the lender goes bankrupt, you will lose your shares!


Why Lend Securities?
Financial companies often “Lend” securities to facilitate short selling. Selling a stock “Short” means borrowing stock from a Lender for a period then selling the stock to a Buyer. At the end of the borrowing period, the Borrower has to give the stock back to the Lender.

If the price of the stock goes down during the lending period, at the end of the period the Borrower buys the stock in the market at the current reduced market price and gives it to the Lender. The Borrower therefore pockets the difference between the price they had originally sold to the Buyer at the start of the lending period and the price they had just paid for it at the end of the lending period.

If the stock rises in value during the borrowing period, the Borrower loses the difference in the original sale price and the price they have to buy it back to satisfy the loan. This practice avoids the short company for being accused of “Naked Shorting”, the practice of selling a stock short without owning the underlying stock.

Take a moment to think how frightening this concept is…in order to make a big negative bet against a company or country, all a Wall Street company has to do it find a counterparty who is willing to loan the representative securities for a nominal fee.

Even worse, the collateral to cover the trade is rarely “tangible”; it’s often other financial contracts. It is therefore very easy to see how confidence can rapidly evaporate in financial markets.

Company versus Country
One interesting result of the above is the changing risk/credit perception between many large corporations and a number of countries, chiefly those in Europe. Sovereign fixed income investments that were previously thought to be low volatility are now behaving like Tech stocks! At the same time, high yield corporate bonds are relatively stable.

Countries have been able to run whatever fiscal policy they wanted because their credit rating always allowed them to borrow and borrow at low interest rates. Companies generally had to maintain pristine balance sheets to enjoy anything like similar access to debt. Moreover, everyone assumed sovereign debtors were highly creditworthy whereas companies have to prove their creditworthiness on a quarterly basis.

Now that the confidence in the finances of many countries has disappeared, we are seeing massive swings in the prices of sovereign bonds; those securities that we all previously thought were very stable. Hedge Funds and short sellers are able to use leverage to bet against the debt of countries in the same way they contributed to the decline of Lehman Brothers.

In our opinion, large multinationals have managed their finances exceptionally well in recent years and their debt (Bonds) deserve the stability currently being shown. We have long stated that the world continues to grow in new areas and different ways. Companies and not countries seem to be doing much better at managing this change.

You can lead an Economy to Water, but can you make it Create Jobs?

You can lead an Economy to Water, but can you make it Create Jobs?

So it‟s now official, the U.S. Economy is going through a “soft spot”. According to the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, speaking last week at an International Monetary Conference in Atlanta:

• "The U.S. economy is recovering from both the worst financial crisis and the most severe housing bust since the Great Depression, and it faces additional headwinds ranging from the effects of the Japanese disaster to global pressures in commodity markets. In this context, monetary policy cannot be a panacea."
• …the economic recovery is “uneven …and frustratingly slow”
• The Fed will keep interest rates bottomed out for “an extended period.”

A few conclusions spring forth from these quotes:

• The Fed will keep Interest Rates low for as long as
possible; longer than most economists currently
believe. Bonds won‟t be under too much interest rate
pressure for a while yet.

• Chairman Ben Bernanke currently feels the launch of a
third round of monetary easing will probably do nothing
to stimulate „real‟ economic demand; principally
meaning create jobs.

• Ben is looking for help from the Government and
Private Sectors in his efforts to inflate the economy.

• The Fed expected QE2 to have more impact on jobs
and GDP. The money benefitted the banking industry
but not industry in general.

It‟s possible to explain away the „soft spot‟ as a result of the Spring 2011 Supply Shocks in Japan and the Middle East; it may even be possible to extrapolate this thinking to justify a return to GDP growth in the Fall.

But one thing remains, until the job market shows signs of sustained improvement, long term confidence in a persistent domestic economic recovery will be questionable.

“Until we see a sustained period of stronger job creation, we cannot consider the recovery to be truly established”, another quote from Ben Bernanke.
Monetary policy cannot be a Panacea
Is The Fed saying that it has done as much as it can through Monetary Easing; the printing and circulating of more money?
QE1 and QE2 achieved their objectives by:

• Saving the U.S. Banking System, and therefore the world‟s banking system.
• Raising the price of Equities
• Reducing Interest Rates and the Dollar

But QE2 or QE3 can‟t sustain economic growth. Quantitative Easing was initially a protective measure; pump liquidity into the economy and provide banks with copious amounts of free capital.

Thereafter, it was intended to be a box of matches that could set the economy ablaze. Well, now all the QE matches have been struck, the economic wildfire still refuses to spread.

Employment is the fuel necessary to get this fire to spontaneously combust.

How to Stimulate Employment?

Jobs are a common byproduct of economic activity; however, productivity increases (together with an amount of outsourcing) has created an economic recovery with fewer new jobs than expected.

So what‟s a government to do about job creation?

QE3?

The Fed obviously thinks: “QE1 and QE2 didn‟t ignite the job market, so why would QE3 do any better?” Additionally, the debt created by quantitative easing requires repayment at some stage (seriously). Repayment will require deficit reduction which will require cut backs in economic activity.

Conclusion: QE3 may ultimately hurt the job market.

Keeping Interest Rates and the Dollar Low?

The Fed may have ended the QE programs, but it will still try to keep interest rates and the dollar low by other means; means too complex to detail here.

Why keep Interest Rates and the Dollar Low?

• Lower interest rates encourage investment (loans cost less) and discourage savers (don‟t put your money in the bank; put it into riskier assets or a business).
• A lower dollar makes domestic goods cheaper and more competitive overseas while making imports more expensive.

Although recent balance of payments data shows U.S. exports have benefitted from a lower dollar, it‟s clear that low interest rates have failed to stimulate lending and economic activity. Why pump more money into the monetary system when it isn‟t finding its way to enough businesses and households. The Government needs to direct the monetary faucet where it can create jobs.
If the printing presses don‟t stop creating money soon, the risk of inflation will increase dramatically. In turn, this may cause interest rates to rise which would defeat the object of the stimulus exercise.

Rising interest rates are synonymous with monetary tightening. Monetary tightening normally means fewer jobs; a downwards spiral no one wants to see at the moment.

Failure to control spending can actually hurt jobs in a similar way to reducing spending.

Note: For all you bond investors, a domestic “rising interest rate environment” may yet be a year or two away if the Fed has their way.

Government & Private Sector Stimulus

Chairman Bernanke‟s comment: “monetary policy cannot be a panacea” begs the question “What else will help monetary policy to create sustainable growth?”

"Policymakers urgently need to put the Federal governments' finances on a sustainable trajectory," Bernanke said in Atlanta. "Establishing a credible plan for reducing future deficits now would not only enhance economic performance in the long run, but could also yield near-term benefits by leading to lower long-term interest rates."

Looks like Ben thinks it's now up to the politicians to help the economy by reducing the federal deficit.

And now the good news – it appears both sides of the political divide agree that the deficit must be reduced. The debate has moved on to:

• How to Reduce the Deficit: Reduce Spending or Increase Taxes?
• How much to Reduce the Deficit by

At a time when investors are looking for a clear direction, let us weigh in with a decisive conclusion:

Let’s wait and see what the Government agrees and what kind of earnings season we have starting early July…


PS: Have you noticed the increasing number of States and Municipalities implementing fiscal tightening activities. Nowhere near enough to make a difference yet, but a step in the right direction and a shining beacon for the route the Federal Government will have to follow soon.