The number of homes for sale is a problem; here's what to do about it!

In almost every major city in Texas there is solid demand from home buyers who struggle to find a home (any home) that meets both their housing and affordability requirements. This is especially true for first time home buyers. It’s a situation that requires both patience and creative solutions.

On the other hand, this may be an excellent time for you to explore options that may not be on your short list. Here are a few suggestions;

1.Look at a fixer-upper. That run-down house that’s been sitting on the market for months may be a diamond in the rough for a buyer with the vision to see its potential, especially if you have the time and skills to participate in renovations. Before making an offer, however, encourage your agents to assist in estimating renovation costs and identifying people in the trades to assist them. There are several different loan programs which make financing the improvements easy.

2. Buy a teardown and rebuild. If a thought of a fixer-upper doesn't excite you, perhaps a teardown, or a vacant lot, and building a new home. Fortunately, there are many ways to accomplish this without the expense of hiring an architect or a custom home builder. Learn who is supplying prefabricated and modular homes to your market—options that aren’t only economical and energy-efficient, but also increasingly popular with younger buyers.

3. Consider a duplex. While many don't love the idea of managing a property (much less a neighbor) the financial upside is hard to ignore. Improvements made to the property may be tax deductible and the additional income will never hurt.

Do You "Really" Want to Be a Landlord

This week was pretty unusual for the Efinity Mortgage staff. Seemingly out of nowhere we had several new clients come in requesting financing for investment (rental) properties. As if there was a sign on our door which read "Efinity Mortgage; The Rental King". It's not that we don't finance investment properties but to have several new transactions in a week is highly unusual as the majority (99%) of our business comes from realtors and builders seeking to assist a family in buying a primary residence. All of that said, I do want to share a story of one couple in particular who were kind enough to give me the ok to share their story.

The "Smiths" were existing homeowners and in the process of adding to their family of 5. Mrs. Smith was interested in leaving the workforce and to manage their properties. Noble concept especially since Mrs. Smith was a $200,000 wage earner! You see whether you’re going away on an extended vacation or considering downsizing into a smaller place, the popularity of websites like Airbnb has led many people to believe that there’s a lot of money in home rental. However, before putting your home on the market, it’s important to be aware of some of the factors that go into having a rental property. It may seem like extra money, but it’s the small details that can make it a more complicated process.

An Investment Property and Renting a vacation/second home have very different goals;

Is It A Short Term Solution

Many people plan on putting their home on the market for a short duration of time, but if you’re only planning on renting for 6 months or a year, it may not be as financially lucrative as you think. While tax breaks can go along with rental properties, the money you make off of this kind of investment is taxable so if you’re not in it for a slightly longer haul, you may not see the financial boost you’re looking for.

What Are You Willing To Deal With?

For those who are planning to put a home on the market, they still need some place to live, and this can mean that a certain amount needs to be made each month for the costs of having two homes even out. Before putting any serious considerations into this, ensure that you know it’s financially feasible. It’s entirely possible that you won’t have renters for certain periods of time and you could also run into problems with the renters you find, so you should sit down and put pen to paper to consider the investment potential.

Have You Considered The Maintenance?

Out of sight is often out of mind, but if you have a renter, you’re responsible for anything that goes wrong in the home. From small maintenance duties to sizeable but necessary overhauls, there are many things you’re legally obligated to do as a landlord and you’ll need to be prepared to take on these responsibilities. Since it will be the duty of the owner, in the event you don’t want to do it, you’ll have to hire a contractor who will be able to handle the work for you.

Having a house as a second property may seem like an ideal investment, but this can require you to take on the responsibilities of a landlord and you may even have to deal with problematic rental situations. If you’re searching for an additional property in the near future, contact us for more information. Everyone has different plans and goals and deserve to properly vetted.

How to ensure your home isn't under-insured

For many of our clients, the following information is view similarly to going to the dentist. That said, it's mission critical that your family review the following and please get with one of our agents for a policy review.

Fact is, most homeowners have insurance. All homeowners who have a mortgage must have insurance. The question is: do you have enough insurance? Will your policy cover you if the worst happens – if your house is totally destroyed and you need to rebuild?

According to the Insurance Information Institute’s 2011 Insurance Pulse Survey, nearly half (48 percent) of all homeowners in the U.S. believe the insured value of their home is linked to its market value.

“They are two different things,” says Michael Barry, the institute’s vice president of media relations. “When it comes to buying homeowners insurance, you have to look at the insured value – what would it cost to rebuild my home in its current location with comparable construction materials if I were to have a total loss? And that number does not represent the market value.”

With home prices in the flat, it’s easy to assume that you can save money by lowering the insurance coverage. Unfortunately, it doesn’t work that way. The cost of building materials – copper, lumber, steel, concrete – have all gone up dramatically the last few years.

“It’s truly unfortunate that people don’t understand market value versus replacement cost,” says Ned, the vice president of claims for a regional insurance company. He agreed to talk to me as long as I did not use his real name.

Ned told me about a recent claim for a house that burned to the ground and the homeowner was grossly under-insured. He had coverage for up to $350,000, but the estimated construction cost came in at $500,000. Ned says this customer was “one of the rare individuals who accepted responsibility” for the situation.

The insurance company did its best to help, but the new house did not have the quality of the original. The homeowner had to downgrade the kitchen appliances. Instead of granite countertops, he went with composite. He also had to settle for a lower-quality roof; one that was guaranteed for 30 years instead of 40.

Getting the right coverage is your responsibility. We advise reviewing your insurance coverage each year with our agents. Despite our reminders and email notifications, most people don’t do this.

Angie’s List recently polled its members and found that nearly one-third of those who responded hadn’t checked their home insurance policies for two years or more.

“This is your responsibility,” says Angie Hicks, the website’s founder. “Your insurance agent doesn’t know what you’ve done to your house. They don’t know if you added a deck or bought an expensive piece of jewelry. Only you know that information.”

So put this on your calendar to make sure you’re reviewing your policy at renewal time.

At the very least, you want to know what you have. Then you can tweak the policy or comparison shop. Make sure you don’t buy too much insurance. You don’t need to insure for the value of the land your house sits on.

According to the Insurance Information Institute, there are four elements that help you decide how much coverage to get:

- The cost to rebuild the structure.

- The cost to replace the contents.

- Additional living expenses if you have to move out during repairs.

- Your liability to others who might get hurt on your property.

If you’re looking to save money raise the deductible, don’t cut back on coverage. The Insurance Information Institute says increasing the deductible from $500 to $1,000 could reduce premiums by up to 25 percent.

Remember: the amount of money the policy will pay for contents and additional living expenses is typically based on the coverage of the structure.

It’s important to have a home inventory to show the insurance company if there is a loss. The free app MyHOME Scr.APP.book (available for iPhones and Android phones) from the National Association of Insurance Commissioners lets you quickly photograph, grab bar codes and serial numbers and store them digitally. There is also free software for your computer at knowyourstuff.org, a site run by the insurance industry.

We encourage you to spend time on both. It'll be time well spent.

US Economy: Simply Not Sustainable

There was plenty of reasons to be optimistic with last week's unemployment report showing a sizable slow down in initial unemployment claims. This week's blog is going to be brief but I would like to present 5 reasons why our Economy may be headed for a substantial slowdown over the next 18 months. Let me repeat: I believe things may get much worse from here should any combination of the following happen:

1. China begins to back away from buying our debt
2. China's growth continues to drive up the demand (and price) for oil
3. Consumer spending slows as the cost of capital is driven higher because of the continued US Treasury drive for capital
4. Discussions continue in the global market about replacing the US dollar as the currency of choice to be replaced by the Euro
5. Housing slows even further as a huge backlog of REO properties makes its way onto the market. Add the large number of adjustable rate and negative arm mortgage products (most with negative HPA) and this appears to be the one most likely baked in the cake.

As you can see, we have a lot riding on another Country to facilitate us moving beyond this recession. The question I keep asking myself is, "what drives this next waive of growth?". From 2001 through 2007, it was housing. In all likelihood it appears that government spending will be the answer. So, what will facilitate that? Borrowing more money. Problem not solved.

As it relates to housing, I am afraid it will have many more dark days ahead of it. Rates are going up as is the cost of home ownership. Unlike the unemployment report, I am not seeing many things to get excited about. Unfortunately, I have more questions today than I did in August 2007 when I predicted a paradigm shift in our economy.

Release Date & Time
Economic Indicator
Consensus Estimate
My Analysis

Mon. June 8
Tue. June, 9. 10;00 a.m. ET
Apr. Wholesale Inventories
-1.1% vs. last -1.6%
This old stale data.

Tue. June 9, 1:00 p.m. ET
Treasury auctions $36 bil. of
3-year notes
The relative short maturity of this security should be attractive to a large number of investors. If so, this event will likely have little, if any meaningful impact on the direction of mortgage interest rates today.

Tue. June 9, before the end of the day
Most mortgage-backed securities "roll" to July delivery
This is a standard monthly administrative function of the mortgage market. The price impact of this event is already reflected on most investors’ rate sheets.


Wed. June 10, 1:00 p.m. ET
Treasury auctions $19 bil. of
10-year notes
The yield on this security has climbed above 3.9% - probably making this offering very attractive to a broad array of investors. If my comments above prove accurate, this will support higher mortgage interest rates.

Wed. June 10, 2:00 p.m. ET
Fed "Beige Book" is released
This report, named for the color of its cover, will provide an assessment of economic conditions in all 12 Federal Reserve districts. Most analysts anticipate the data will show that recessionary pressures are moderating in most of the country.

Thurs. June 11, 8:30 a.m. ET
Initial jobless claims for the week ended 6/06
Down 6,000
Look for this data to have little, if any meaningful impact on the market as investors discount today’s decline in the face of ramped-up expectations for a strong surge in jobless claims once the ramifications of the auto industry bankruptcies begin to work through the economy.

Thurs. June 11, 8:30 a.m. ET
May Retail Sales
Ex. auto
+0.5% vs. last -0.4%
+0.2% vs. last -0.5%
The government’s one time payment to Social Security recipients combined with tax refunds and other fiscal stimulus likely contributed strongly to the gains for both of the components of this report. If the consensus estimates proves accurate, mortgage investors will likely shrug the May Retail Sales gains off as a statistical aberration. Look for this data to have little, if any meaningful influence on the direction of equity markets today.

Thurs. June 11, 10:00 a.m. ET
Apr. Business Inventories
-1.0% vs. last -1.0%
This old stale bit of macro-economic news will likely do nothing more than take up space on this week’s calendar.

Thurs. June 11, 1:00 p.m. ET
Treasury auctions $11 bil. of
30-year bonds
The yield on this offering is above 4.5% -- a level that will hopefully be attractive to a large number of investors. If not, this event will likely serve to push fixed long term interest rates higher before the end of the day. This is not good news for mortgage rates as many a client are sitting out there waiting for things to turn around.


Fri. June 12,

How Do You Eat An Elephant?

Bank of America’s purchase of Countrywide is due to be ratified by CW’s shareholders later this month. This deal was hailed as such a win-win by the US Bank Regulators that a well established law, the Riegel-Neal Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act, instituted a 10 percent cap on market share to prevent an institution from amassing too much power. Bank of America and Countrywide's banking unit will have $773 billion of combined deposits, equal to a 10.9 percent market share. Like Bear Stearns, the Federal Reserve couldn’t allow Countrywide to be insolvent and sought out a partner to take the fat girl to the prom. You can read about their justification here: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/orders/orders20080605a1.pdf
Bank of America is perhaps the most respected bank in the US along with Chase. They are the Goldman Sachs of the industry. That said my concern I’m sure thoroughly discussed in BofA conference rooms; Is B of A taking on to much risk at a time when capital is tightly held in the capital markets? The issue, Countrywide’s Servicing book. CW’ made its mark on the industry from 04’ to 07’ offering Option Arms. As a Thrift, Countywide would have to of secured the performance of many of the loans not sold to the GSE’s. I happen to be the proud owner of a said CW power point presentation (now removed from their website) where they boasted how 68% of the firm’s profitability was derived from Option Arms. Those of you who know about mortgages will understand the complexity of the situation. Option Arms typically have 4 payment options (not three as National City tried to rollout). Borrowers have an “option” to may a 30 yr payment, a 15yr, an Interest Only and a “Minimum Payment”. This amount is less than the interest earned for a given month. So, the remaining amount would be added back into the principal balance. Depending on the loan, when the loan reached 110% or 115% of the original note amount, the loans would move into a full amortization. I spend months on a local DFW radio show explaining how dangerous this product was:
http://radiotime.com/program/p_51173/Legacy_Financials_Power_Hour.aspx
Funny how my career carried me to Bear Stearns and National City, one prominent and one misguided player in this space. Anyway, so now as have a witches brew: A borrower who now has a larger payment than when he/she started, an interest rate which is 75 to 150 basis points higher than the market and less time to pay off the loan, usually 25-26 years if minimum payments were made month 1. Oh, and let’s not add a negative HPA environment which we now find ourselves in.
Countrywide’s story? Countrywide has $27 billion of negative amortization, or payment-option, adjustable- rate mortgages, according to a company regulatory filing. In the first quarter, 8.7 percent of those borrowers were at least three months late on payments, up from 5.4 percent in December and 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006, the company said. Two-thirds of Countrywide's negative amortization borrowers were making less than full interest payments, and 82 percent of them obtained the mortgages without providing pay stubs or tax returns to prove the income they reported on the loan applications was correct, according to the filings. Over the next 24 months, almost all of these transactions will come due. What then? Is BofA prepared to resolve perhaps up to $12.5B in distressed fixed income securities due to borrower delinquency and foreclosure? If not, things may be really interesting at BofA in the next 18 months.
On Tap for this week, one of the more fun filled weeks regarding this nations' economic situation.

Release Date & Time
Economic Indicator
Consensus Estimate
My Analysis

Mon. June 23,
Empty day.


Tue. June 24, 9:00 a.m. ET
FOMC meeting
This is the first day of a two-day Fed meeting.

Tue. June 24, 10:00 a.m. ET
June Consumer Confidence
57.0 vs. last 57.2
This report will not likely have a notable impact on the direction of mortgage interest rates today

Tue. June 24, 1:00 p.m. ET
Treasury Dept. auctions
$30 bil. of 2-year notes
Uncle Sam will almost surely have to bump up the yield on this offering to attract the desired capital. Investors will be very hesitant to take risks as they await the outcome of the Fed’s monetary policy deliberations currently underway.

Wed. June 25, 8:30 a.m. ET
May Durable Goods Orders
+0.1% vs. last -0.6%
The modest improvement in this index will almost surely go unnoticed as investors pace the floor awaiting the conclusion of today’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Wed. June 25, 10:00 a.m. ET
May New Home Sales
Down 3.00%
New Home Sales are expected to reach a new cycle low in May. Such an outcome is already priced into the mortgage market -- which makes today’s report rather anticlimactic. Look for little, if any change in the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates as a result of this report.

Wed. June 25, 2:15 p.m. ET
Federal Open Market Committee rate decision and post-meeting statement
Fed fund rate unchanged
Market participants see little chance the Fed will make any change to short-term interest rates. Investors expect the Fed’s post-meeting statement to attempt to strike a balance between policymakers’ increased concern over the chance that inflation pressures will escalate -- and worries that the economy is tracing along the edge of a possible extended recession. If the Fed achieves its objective of talking tough on inflation without leaving the impression an August rate hike is “baked-in-the-cake” -- mortgage interest rates will likely hover near current levels. On the other hand, if investors see the text of the post-meeting statement as containing thinly veiled hints that one or more rate hikes are likely before year-end -- it is almost a sure bet mortgage interest rates will move higher before the end of the week.

Thurs. June 26, 8:30 a.m. ET
Final Estimate Q1 GDP
+1.0% vs. last +0.9%
This old stale bit of economic news will likely do nothing more than take up space on the calendar today.

Thurs. June 26, 8:30 a.m. ET
Initial jobless claims for the week ended 6/21
Down 1,000
This report will likely have little impact on the direction of mortgage interest rates.

Thurs. June 26, 10:00 a.m. ET
May Existing Home Sales
+0.8% vs. last -1.0%
The National Association of Realtors is expected to report that existing home sales are beginning to stabilize. It is far too early to say the worse of the housing crisis has passed – but any sign of improvement is welcome. Look for this data to have little meaningful impact on the direction of mortgage rates today.

Thurs. June 26, 1:00 p.m. ET
Treasury Dept. auctions
$20 bil. of 5-year notes
A non-threatening monetary policy statement from the Fed on Wednesday will go a long way to ramping up demand for these securities. On the other hand, if the Fed leaves investors convinced a rate hike or series or rate hikes are likely before the end of the year the yield on these notes will move higher – dragging mortgage rates higher as well.

Fri. June 27, 8:30 a.m. ET
May Personal Income
Spending
Core PCE Index
+0.4% vs. last +0.2%
+0.6% vs. last +0.2%
0.2% vs. last +0.1%
It is going to be all about the core (excluding food and energy) personal consumption expenditure index today. A reading of 0.2% or less will be supportive of steady to perhaps fractionally lower rates while a number greater than 0.2% will almost certainly produce notably higher rates.

The answer to the question headlining this post is simple. One bite at a time. In dealing with our professional, personal and financial challenges in this market, the only way to address them is to tackle the problem one at a time.

Lastly, I added a survey. Will comment on the results September 1st.

The Fixed Income Week from Hell

Who needs a stiff drink? Good chances are anyone who focus in the RMBS, CMBS markets do. Becuase of global issues, sagging employment (who knew?) and a massive swoon in the stock market, the bond and fixed income rates took a huge beating last week.

As the week begins, the directional trend of mortgage interest rates will likely be most influenced by continued weakness in the stock market, saber rattling between the governments of Israel and Iran and its related impact on oil prices, and the presence of Uncle Sam in the credit market. The most influential economic report of the week will probably be Friday’s May Consumer Price Index figures. Consumers, Fed policymakers and fixed-income investors are becoming increasingly nervous about the likelihood that inflation pressures will continue to mount, even as economic activity levels remain weak.

Despite unemployment numbers, sky-high oil and food prices have pushed the inflation to 3.9% -- well above the Fed’s stated “comfort zone.” More bad news regarding inflation pressure at the consumer level will make it exceptionally difficult for mortgage interest rates to move to notably lower levels. Here's this week's

Release Date & Time
Economic Indicator
Consensus Estimate
Analysis

Mon. June 9, 10:00 a.m. ET
April Pending Home Sales
-0.5% vs. last -1.0%
The trend line still points to weakness in the housing sector. The fact that the rate of declined tapered-off a bit last month will likely leave most market participants unimpressed. This data will likely produce little if any significant change in the mortgage market today.

Tue. June 10,
Most mortgage-backed securities “roll” to July delivery
This is a standard monthly administrative function of the mortgage market. The roughly 25 basis-point downward adjustment in the price of mortgage-backed securities this event creates is already reflected on most investors’ rate sheets.
Wed. June 11, 2:00 p.m. ET
Fed “Beige Book” released
This compilation of economic surveys from each of the twelve Federal Reserve Bank districts will likely draw a bit more attention than usual. It is likely that the data will show an economy skating along the edge of recessionary conditions. If so, look for mortgage interest rates to remain steady to fractionally lower on the day.

Thurs. June 12, 8:30 a.m. ET
May Retail Sales
Ex. Auto
+0.5% vs. last -0.2%
+0.7% vs. last +0.5%
Look for these apparently stronger retail sales figures to be heavily discounted by mortgage investors. Higher prices for gasoline added a large part of the gain in the headline number and government stimulus checks undoubtedly contributed to the run-up in the ex. auto component. If the consensus estimate is within shouting distance of the actual numbers -- this data will not likely influence the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates much one way or the other.

Thurs. June 13, 8:30 a.m. ET
Initial weekly jobless claims for the week ended 6/7
Up 13,000
Signs of more weakness in the labor sector will tend to be supportive of steady to fractionally lower mortgage interest rates.

Thurs. June 13, 10:00 a.m. ET
April Business Inventories
+0.3% vs. last +0.1%
It is unlikely mortgage investors will give this old bit of second-tier macro-economic data anything more than a passing glance and a yawn.

Thurs. June 13, 1:00 p.m. ET
Treasury auctions
10-year note
Traders try to push bond and note prices down in front of new incoming supply. If they are successful their actions will tend to drag your investors’ rate sheet prices lower as well.

Fri. June 14, 8:30 a.m. ET
May Consumer Price Index
Core Rate
+0.5 vs. last +0.2%
+0.2% vs. last +0.1%
This is one of the Fed’s favorite measures of inflation at the consumer level. Mortgage investors will be keenly focused on these numbers – particularly core consumer prices (a value that excludes the more volatile food and energy components). A core reading of 0.3% or more will almost certainly send rates spiraling higher before the end of the day. It will likely take a core reading of 0.1% or less to encourage mortgage investors to push rates even a fraction lower. Don’t hold your breath hoping for a mortgage market friendly number.