Considering Buying or Refinancing a Home? Read This....

According to a survey conducted by J.D. Power, 27% of new homeowners ultimately came to regret their choice of lender. Twenty seven percent. The major reason for the dissatisfaction was overall poor customer experience. That's pretty vague so let's dive further. A lack of communication or unmet expectations (again back to communication) topped the "poor customer experience" sub list. Other regrets listed included pressure from the lender to choose a particular product/loan and not closing on time. Communication is a two way street. As a homeowner or potential homebuyer, you can remove some of the tension and turmoil of home loan process by carefully vetting potential lenders. Here are 5 questions to ask potential lenders before you make a commitment.

1. What mortgage programs do you offer? In many cases, choosing the best loan for your specific financial situation requires working with a lender who offers a wide array of loans. You don’t want to work with a lender who tries to push you into one loan simply because that’s the only option from their limited selection. Ask them if they regularly handle the type of loan you are looking for. If the type of loan you are looking for is more specific than say, a conventional fixed-rate mortgage, a little more expertise is useful — and in some cases, it might be necessary. An uncommon home loan like a United States Department of Agriculture loan, for instance, must go through an approved lender.

2. Inquire about the qualifications for the home loan you are seeking. There may be two lenders who offer the same type of loan, but their minimum requirements could differ. For instance, Department of Veterans Affairs loans require a minimum credit score of 620, but a lender might require a minimum score of 640. Comparison-shop. Don’t assume the same type of loan means the same terms.

3. Ask your lender to provide an estimate of the rates and fees expected to pay. Important note here; If you have taxes and insurance tied to your mortgage payment, an initial estimate will never guarantee your final, out-of-pocket expense. Numbers will change as things like title are received or surveys are approved or ordered. That said, it can be a solid jumping-off point for evaluating lenders. If the loan programs are the same, a helpful starting point is to compare the interest rate and total origination costs. It is important to know rates fluctuate, so try comparing lenders on the same day to get the most accurate mortgage rate comparisons. Speaking of rates....

4. Ask when you may be able to do a rate lock. As we mentioned above, mortgage rates can change multiple times a day. They can be as fluid as the stock market. Be sure to ask about the associated fees, including how much it costs to extend the lock should it expire before closing.

5. What is the time estimate for processing my home loan? This is critically important if you are selling a home or coordinating the end of a current lease with a new home purchase. Under the TRID guidelines, it's vitally important you receive your initial closing disclosure four business days before your closing date. In short, get the key dates of the appraisal and underwriting approval. Of course, it’s always a good idea to build in a small buffer if you can — and not just because loan preparation can take longer than expected. Along these lines, make sure you explain that you expect communication in a straightforward and timely manner.

Low Interest Rate Train is Leaving the Station

If you currently are or have been considering refinancing your home loan but have put if off because life happens, your opportunity may be coming to a close. Trump's victory speech in the early hours of Wednesday included a pledge to spend on rebuilding America's infrastructure — a plan that should stir economic growth and mean substantial new debt. These comments might be what the US economy needs to get moving again after 4+ years of relatively flat growth. They are also inflationary in nature. Which is bad for borrowing rates.

This new exacerbates the fact, mortgage application volume fell 1.2 percent last week from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association and was down nearly 11 percent in the past four weeks, as rates have already climbed from historic lows.

As of this morning (November 10, 2016), the 10-year note was yielding 2.07 percent, the highest level since Jan. 14, and the 30-year was at 2.86, also a January high in afternoon trading. It was the biggest one day jump in the 10-year yield since Aug. 11, 2011.

"Globally, rates have begun to creep upwards as investors anticipate less aggressive monetary policies from central banks, and U.S. rates are being pushed upwards in response," said Michael Fratantoni, the MBA's chief economist. "Additionally, new data shows continued positive signals regarding the job market and rising inflation, indicating that the Fed is likely to hike in December and will continue increasing rates next year."

In closing, the interest rates in the mid-3’s for government loan programs, such as FHA & VA, could be gone as quickly as months end as upward pressure on the 10yr gains momentum. If, as many expect, President-Elect Trump rolls out the trillion dollar infrastructure plan, we may very well be looking at interest rates in the upper 5% range by this time next year.

Buying a Home and Have Questions?

Wonderful! Congrats on the decision. We have pulled together some helpful tips to get you started. These go pretty much in order, as most in the real estate industry will tell you it is important to stick with this road map to save yourself and others much anxiety.


How Much House Can You Afford?
Buying a new house is a big investment. You want to be sure that you have all the right finances before proceeding. Spend the time to do a serious audit of your finances and determine a budget. Use an Affordability Calculator to estimate how much you can afford on a house based on your income, savings, debt and assets. Any of Efinity's licensed mortgage professionals can also help with this. Check your credit score. Every year you are allowed one free copy of your credit report.


Get Preapproved For Mortgage
Now that you’ve checked your finances, it is time to see what kind of mortgages you qualify for. Many buyers make the mistake of assuming that being prequalified and preapproved for a mortgage are the same. They are NOT. At Efinity Mortgage at time of application we press deeply into your financial situation and certainly through the application process, an extensive financial background check and a current credit score report.


Find the Right Realtor
A realtor or real estate agent is another great person to have as you maneuver the home buying process. They have the in-depth knowledge on home buying and help you negotiate the purchase. This service is free for the buyer because the realtor is compensated by the seller. You can search online for a realtor at Realtor, Zillow, Trulia. Efinity Mortgage also works with a large number of realtors throughout our network.


Find a Home
You’re finally at the step you’ve been waiting for. Be sure to create a checklist of items you need and want in your future home. This will narrow down the endless choices of homes and help you focus on only the right ones. Also, make a list of your neighborhood preferences like safety, commute, type of schools, local shopping and grocery.


Get a Home Inspection
The home inspection is a step that many home buyers tend to skip over but this is a very important step once you’ve found a home you like. A home inspection checks for any damages to the home’s structure or foundation as well as any major or minor fix-ups that need to be done. Once a thorough home inspection is completed the buyer and seller will receive a report from the home inspector.


Make An Offer
Make an offer with the help of your realtor and don’t be afraid to negotiate price. This may take longer than you think but always be ready if the seller says yes.


Close the Sale
Before you close review all the costs associated with both the purchase and the expected monthly payments. No matter how much time and effort we put forth, it is still amazing to us how often clients gloss over these things. Spend the time and know what you are buying.

Learn the Facts & Myths of Reverse Mortgages

I had a lengthy conversation yesterday with one of my trusted realtors regarding Reverse Mortgages. While this is not been in Efinity Group's typical space, I was shocked at the misinformation that was understood as fact regarding this program. Similar to what we have done in the past I wanted to put something together to get the facts out there for our reading audience. Taking equity from a house is large decision for most seniors. It's not a decision that should be taken lightly. That said, a Reverse Mortgage is designed to allow seniors to improve their lives by freeing up the monthly obligations of a mortgage and whatever restrictive monthly cash flows that may present. Having access to funds to pay off credit cards, home equity loans and increasing cash flow for living expenses are a few benefits to having a reverse mortgage. Here are a list of facts and myths about reverse mortgages to help you make your decision.

Myth #1: It is the bank that owns the senior's home. Fact: When a customer has a reverse mortgage, their name will stay on the title unless a change in the title is made.

Myth #2: The bank has the right to make an elderly person leave their home. Fact: Reverse mortgages are insured and regulated by the Federal government. Any mortgage servicer has no authority to ask a senior to give up their home unless they fail to comply with the loan terms. Similar to any other mortgage, items like property taxes and homeowners insurance need to be paid and current. Texas Senior Lending wants to help customers stay in their homes as long as they can.

Myth #3: The senior’s heirs will eventually have to repay the loan if the customer passes away. Truth: A reverse mortgage is a non-recourse loan that gives the estate a year to sell the home at market value. Once the house is sold, the money from the sale will pay for the loan.

Myth #4: You will be responsible to make payments on reverse mortgage loans. Truth: Payments are due when the last living homeowner of the property permanently leaves the home.

Myth #5: Reverse mortgage proceeds are taxable and affect Social Security or Medicare. Truth: Although proceeds of a mortgage are not taxable and have no effect on your social Security or Medicare, you’re Supplemental Security Income (SSI) and Medicaid can possibly be affected. We hope some of what was provided above is beneficial.

Interested in buying a home? Here the difference between success and failure (per the NAHB)

August 4, 2014 - Each $1,000 increase in the cost of a new median-priced home price forces 206,000 prospective buyers out of the marketplace, according to a new study by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). source: http://www.nahb.org/news_details.aspx?newsID=16947 In all the wrangling over credit, construction and confidence in this housing recovery, the real cost of owning a new home could come down to about the same amount as the cost of a new washing machine. NAHB claims just $1,000 makes all the difference. "Each $1,000 increase in the cost of a new median-priced home price forces 206,000 prospective buyers out of the marketplace," reads the first line of a new report from the National Association of Home Builders. NAHB researchers based their findings on the number of households that would not qualify for a mortgage (factoring income, debt, interest, property taxes and homeowners insurance) based on that price increase to a median-priced home. They varied state to state, with a low of 313 borrowers not qualifying in Wyoming, to a high of 18,250 in Texas. "It all adds up. A thousand dollars means an additional monthly cost, based on someone's income. That may make the difference between owning and renting," said Robert Dietz, a tax and market analyst at the NAHB. The NAHB is using the analysis to focus on the effects that building regulations have on affordability, noting that higher regulatory costs for builders are passed on in the price of a new home. That said, the $1,000 figure is striking evidence of just how many Americans teeter on the edge of homeownership. The nation's homeownership rate continues to fall, as job and wage growth does not keep pace with home price growth. Nationwide, home prices, including distressed sales, rose 7.5 percent in June 2014 compared with June 2013, according to a report released Tuesday by CoreLogic, a data company. This is a moderation in the double-digit price gains seen last year, but still represents 28 straight months of year-over-year appreciation. "Home prices are continuing to rise fueled by ongoing tight supply, low rates and aggressive investor buying on the East and West coasts," said Anand Nallathambi, CEO of CoreLogic, in a release. "The expected surge in the number of homes for sale has not materialized to date, as many homeowners are staying put and waiting for better economic times and higher prices." Supply issues are easing somewhat and should continue to moderate price gains, but other issues in the mortgage market are also keeping the price of home ownership higher. While builders complain of construction regulations, mortgage lenders argue they are being handcuffed by a still backward-looking housing finance system. They need to have $1,000 extra, according to the builders, but that is just one small part of a far more complicated housing recovery. Home buyers need good credit, sufficient down payments, proof of solid employment…or cold hard cash as covered by Diana Olick with CNBC. Souce: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101895900 While the national news agencies quickly found this story appealing, the truth behind the matter is if you have been responsible in your borrowing, have shown steady employment for over two years and have at least the required down payment; most everyone can obtain a mortgage. There, we said it. It's really not that hard. We have programs available today which allow 1st time homeowners leveraging FHA financing to have as low as a 580 credit score. They only need steady employment and the HUD required 3.5% down and even that can be a gift from a family member! In closing, don't let the headlines fool you. As in years past, steady income and responsible borrowing have been and always will be the key to homeownership.

Welcome to Spring - Home Buying Time!!

With Spring upon us, and new buyers out looking for houses, we thought today might be a good time to review the basics of what lenders look for as they decide to approve (or deny) mortgage applications. For at least the last two decades we have heard them called “The 4 C’s of Underwriting”- Capacity, Credit, Cash, and Collateral. Guidelines and risk tolerances change, but the core criteria do not.

CAPACITY
CAPACITY is the analysis of comparing a borrower’s income to their proposed debt. It considers the borrower’s ability to repay the mortgage. Lenders look at two calculations (we call ratios). The first is your Housing Ratio. It simply is the percentage of your proposed total mortgage payment (principal & interest, real estate taxes, homeowner’s insurance and, if applicable, flood insurance and mortgage insurance – like PMI or the FHA MIP) divided by your monthly, pre-tax income. A solid Housing Ratio (often called the front end ratio) would be 28% or less; although, at times loans are approved at a significantly higher number. That’s because your front end ratio is looked at in conjunction with your back end ratio.
The back end ratio (referred to as your Debt Ratio) starts with that mortgage payment calculation from the Housing Ratio and adds to it your recurring debts that would show up on your credit report (auto loans, student loans, minimum credit card payments, etc.) without taking into consideration some other debts (phone bills, utility bills, cable TV). A good back ratio would be 40% or less. However, loans sometimes are granted with higher debt ratios. Understand that every application is different. Income can be impacted by overtime, night differential, bonuses, job history, unreimbursed expenses, commission, as well as other factors. Similarly, how your debts are considered can vary. Consult an experienced loan officer to determine how the underwriter will calculate your numbers.

CREDIT
CREDIT is the statistical prediction of a borrower’s future payment likelihood. By reviewing the past factors (payment history, total debt compared to total available debt, the types of monies: revolving credit vs. installment debt outstanding) a credit score is assigned each borrower which reflects the anticipated repayment. The higher your score, the lower the risk to the lender which usually results in better loan terms for the borrower. Your loan officer will look to run your credit early on to see what challenges may (or may not) present themselves.

CASH
CASH is a review of your asset picture after you close. There are really two components – cash in the deal and cash in reserves. Simply put, the bigger your down payment (the more of your own money at risk) the stronger the loan application. At the same time, the more money you have in reserve after closing the less likely you are to default. Two borrowers with the same profile as far as income ratios and credit scores have different risk levels if one has $50,000 in the bank after closing and the other has $50. There is logic here. The source of your assets will be examined. Is it savings? Was it a gift? Was it a one-time settlement/lottery victory/bonus? Discuss how much money you have and its origins with your loan officer.

COLLATERAL
COLLATERAL refers to the appraisal of your home. It considers many factors – sales of comparable homes, location of the home, size of the home, condition of the home, cost to rebuild the home, and even rental income options. Understand the lender does not want to foreclose (they aren’t in the real estate business), but they do need to have something to secure the loan against, in case of default. In today’s market, appraisers tend to be conservative in their evaluations. Appraisals are really the only one of the 4 C’s that can’t be determined ahead of time in most cases.

Now, each of the 4 C’s are important, but it’s really the combination of them that is key. Strong income ratios and a large down payment with strong reserves can offset some credit issues. Similarly, long and strong credit histories help higher ratios….and good credit and income can overcome lesser down payments. Talk openly and freely with your loan officer. They are on your side, advocating for you and looking to structure your file as favorably as possible. We hope you find some value in this information as you elect to move up, move down or accross this great country of ours!

Creative planning but ...

There are new developments between the Obama administration and a federal housing regulators who are considering a program to draw private investment back into the government-dominated residential mortgage market by having Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac sell slices of securities that wouldn't carry a federal guarantee but would pay a higher interest rate than current mortgage-backed bonds.

No decisions have been made, but officials believe a small pilot program could be rolled out sometime next year, according to people familiar with the matter.

Officials see it as a step toward reducing the $10.4 trillion U.S. mortgage market's dependence on government-controlled mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. If the leadership in both groups believe this model would keep US residential mortgages affordable, we're all for it. However, we fear what this same leadership has not factored in is the "dramatic" increase private money would require in rate to not have government guarantee. The margins just aren't attractive to the everyday commercial investor and without attractive margins, rates to the consumer will surely rise.

As we called it, Double Dip Housing has arrived

Here are latest from S&P/Case Shiller report out this morning.

• 4.2 percent decline in Q1 of 2011, 2.9 percent from one year ago.

• The 10 cities fell .6 percent in March

• Top 20 cities fell .8 percent in March

What's probably most concerning and begs to question, what happened to the home buyer tax credits which were supposed to stimulate the economy and housing market (not necessarily in that order)?

Perhaps the best news to come out of this will be evidence that mortgage rates will remain low as yields become subject to basic economic supply and demand. With new mortgage transaction counts down, there just isn't enough fixed income products out there to buy outside of corporate bonds and US Treasuries..

To further the point, the National Association of Realtors released an article the other day verifying the median income of real estate agents has fallen 22% to $34,100? Median income….half make more and half make less. Also, a mere 16% of national real estate agents made 6 figures last year. I’m sure you’re curious to what that number represents and it’s 176,556 agents.

Ok, so all this wonderful news is out there. Here's our take on how to truly jumpstart both the housing industry and this economy.

• Bring back down payment assistance. I know the GSE's (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) despised these buyer assisted grant programs. Here's how the vast majority of them worked: Seller of the home (at closing) would make a "charitable donation" to a Non-profit organization (say a church), the church in turn work pocket a $900 admin. fee but remit the rest of the month (at times up to $10,000) towards the buyers closing cost. True the default in loans structured in the aforementioned way had higher default levels but now that HUD has grossly increased both the initial upfront Mortgage Insurance Premium and Monthly Premium, there's got to be a pretty decent model which supports a 3-6% default and still ensure "success" in homeownership.

• Housing is only so important to an already service oriented country like the US. Manufacturing MUST return. Leadership in Washington DC must bring back significant incentives to "defend" this countries manufacturing arm.

• Flat tax. If this county remains (as we suspect it will) a service oriented country, we must tax it accordingly whereby those leveraging the most services or consuming the most goods, in turn pay more.

Simple, now where do we petition these simple requests?

Oh No They Didn't....

The US Debt Commission charged by the president on balancing the US’ budget, remitted their fiscal austerity plan. Within the proposal was a key ingredient which will greatly affect American homeownership, specifically the income-tax deduction for mortgage interest. The 18-member commission has been looking for ways to trim the federal deficit. Among the $3.8 trillion in debt-cutting options being considered by the “National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform” was initially written to include the eliminating for second homes mortgages of more than $500,000, and home-equity loans. The final release is a bit more aggressive. It includes a 12% non-refundable tax credit available to all tax payers with mortgages now caped at $500,000. NO credit from interest from second homes and home equity loans. As one might expect, the reaction from various housing industry leaders was a strident “Not A Good Idea”. With its release, the Congress and the President “must decide which tax expenditures to include in the tax code” of which mortgage interest for primary residences is specifically mentioned. I’ll highlight a few of the comments I have found around the news wires:

• “For a battered housing industry, which is struggling with a 21 percent unemployment rate among construction workers, this is absolutely the worst time to be considering changes,” said National Association of Home Builders President Bob Jones. Adding that diminishing or ending the deduction would exert further downward pressure on home prices, leaving more homeowners with mortgages larger than the value of their property and fueling even more foreclosures.
• Mortgage Bankers Association Chairman Michael D. Berman said that while his group’s members shared in the growing concern about the federal deficit, limiting the use of the mortgage-interest deduction “will have negative repercussions for consumers and home values up and down the housing chain.” Given “the fragile state” of the housing market, Berman said, “now is not the time to be scaling back incentives for homeownership.”
• Not to be left out, the National Association of REALTORS® has decided to take a wait and see approach.

There are some supports of this action, may of which are in the economics field. “The mortgage-interest deduction is to housing policy what Social Security reform has traditionally been to politics: the third rail,” says Kevin Gillen, vice president at Econsult Corp. in Philadelphia. He shares a consensus among economists is that the deduction is regressive and promotes overconsumption.

Out of pure selfish reasons, it’s no surprise that I oppose anything but a very limited change relating to interest and tax deduction on all types of homeownership. My suggestion would be to eliminate the interest deduction on all mortgages over $1.5 million and all Non-Owner properties as they typically have additional deductions taken with home improvement. This affects the super rich (or over extended) and the “investor”. The fact that it’s mentioned creates a slippery slope down the road should more severe additional cuts are required. The primary-residence tax and interest deduction is the one almost every American homeowner looks forward to as a way to be rewarded for the risks and costs of owning and maintaining a home. With almost half of the recent homebuyers consisting of first-timers, this tax and interest deduction is critical to the on-going recovery. Any changes in my opinion, even my own suggestions should not be implemented until the housing market is operating normally.


THE NATIONAL COMMISSION ON FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY AND REFORM
http://www.fiscalcommission.gov/sites/fiscalcommission.gov/files/documents/TheMomentofTruth12_1_2010.pdf

Todays Thought: Does your mortgage rate start with 4?

It’s often said that home is where the heart is. Yet we find that many of our clients fail to realize that a mortgage is at the heart of every good financial plan. Making sure you've got the right one can save you from unnecessary interest payments, which allow for further wealth creation and financial health for your family. Today, October 7th, we reached all historic lows for home loan rates (see http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38770102/ns/business-real_estate/) NOW is THE TIME to; refinance your current home loan, consolidate your existing home loan(s), access your equity and pay down higher credit rate loans or put home buying on the front burner!

When it comes to determining if your mortgage is still the right one for you, there are some important factors to consider; include the type of loan (or loans) you may need, your timeline for purchase, if you have an existing mortgage the your current loan balance, your existing interest rate, and any recent or upcoming changes to your financial situation (i.e. job change, marriage, divorce, kids going to college, etc). While considering the home loan process may seem like a daunting task, have no fear. Pick up the phone or email now to discuss your options with one of our licensed financial professionals. The time to ask is NOW. Just as rates arrived at historic levels, they very likely won't stay this way forever. On a side note, the importance of these historic rates can be summarized in the following way:

A $200,000 mortgage with a 30yr term at a rate 5.00% has a monthly principal and interest payment of $1,073.64.

At today’s rate, the same payment ($1,074.18) can be had with a $225,000 mortgage.

OR

A $400,000 mortgage, at 5.000%, has a monthly payment of $2,147.28 (P&I).

Today, that same payment ($2,148.37) gets you a $450,000 mortgage. That’s $50,000 more!!

With the disappearance of the capital markets in the residential mortgage space, the majority of all mortgage loans are now being purchased by our federal government. Yes, the same federal government who might seriously consider raising taxes! In closing, allow me to encourage you to spend a little time reviewing your situation today. After all, no one wants to look back and realize that a great opportunity to improve their financial situation has passed them by.

Fannie Mae toughens Underwriting Guidelines

Fact: Fannie Mae is the the largest provider of U.S. residential mortgage funding. Fact: Without Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, mortgage rates would be significantly higher.
Fact: On Monday, Fannie Mae moved to further tighten underwriting guidelines involving income requirements of borrowers to "better assess borrowers' ability to pay".

These changes will now require lenders (Like Efinity Mortgage) to include ALL revolving debts in a borrower's debt-to-income ratio. In times gone by, if there were less than 10 payments remaining on a debt, these items typlically were excluded. What does this mean to you?

The continued shift by Fannie Mae (and Freddie Mac) comes as tighter lending standards have been cited behind a sluggish response by borrowers to record low interest rates. We continue to see many borrowers whom still have mortgage rates ABOVE 5.375!!

Fact: Home loan rates have never been lower.
Fact: Long-term interest rates have never been lower.

With rates as low as they are today, many options exist. Depending on your needs, opportunity exists to either save a lot of money in your monthly payment, over the life of your loan, or both. Many people have recently chosen to refinance into shorter terms – 10, 15, or 20 years – in some cases bringing a large principal reduction payment to closing to get the loan they want.

Whatever your personal situation is, the best thing you can do is to investigate your options. It has been reported that the average rate in effect for all mortgages today exceeds 5.375%. If you or someone you know is currently in this situation, you owe it to yourself to see how you can save today.

Fannie Mae posts $29 billion loss

As recently reported in the AP, Fannie Mae on Monday posted a $29 billion loss in the third quarter as it took a massive tax-related charge, and said it may have to tap the government’s $100 billion lifeline in the coming months.
The mortgage finance company, seized by federal regulators more than two months ago, posted a loss of $13 per share for the July-September quarter, mainly due to a $21.4 billion non-cash charge to reduce the value of tax assets. That compares with a loss of $1.4 billion, or $1.56 a share, in the year-ago period. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected a loss of $1.60 per share.

Fannie Mae’s net worth — the value of its assets minus the value of its liabilities — fell to $9.4 billion at the end of September down from $44.1 billion at the end of last year. If that number turns negative, Fannie Mae would be forced to obtain funding from the Treasury Department.
The ultimate bill for taxpayers remains unclear. Jim Vogel, a debt analyst with FTN Financial in Memphis, Tenn., said total aid for Fannie and its sibling company Freddie Mac is unlikely to exceed the $200 billion initially pledged by the government.

Despite worsening housing market conditions, Fannie Mae is “still setting aside way more for future losses than they’re absorbing today,” Vogel said. Others aren’t so sure. Barclays Capital analyst Rajiv Setia said the government’s arrangement with Fannie and Freddie “may need to be amended” next year. Many analysts consider Freddie Mac, which is expected to report earnings later this week, to be in worse financial shape.

The real estate industry is also waiting to see if the government, under President-elect Barack Obama, will use Fannie and Freddie to help alleviate the foreclosure crisis by aggressively modifying or refinancing loans. Together, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac own or guarantee around half of U.S. home loans. “They’re no longer being run for profit,” said Fox-Pitt Kelton analyst Howard Shapiro. Fannie Mae posted a loss of $13 per share for the July-September quarter, mainly due to a $21.4 billion non-cash charge to reduce the value of a tax asset and $9.2 billion in expenses resulting from falling home prices and surging defaults. Fannie Mae, which has bled $33.5 billion in red ink so far this year, is now run by CEO Herbert Allison, formerly chairman and chief executive of retirement fund manager TIAA-CREF. Fannie Mae’s former top executive, Daniel Mudd, was ousted as part of the government takeover. Fannie and Freddie are now facing a federal grand jury investigation into their accounting practices.

Last month, Fannie Mae said it would change its accounting for its deferred-tax assets, which can result from operating losses and be used to offset taxes on future profits. But Fannie may not have any profits for a long time to come, the company said. The U.S. housing market is continuing to decline. Fannie Mae posted $9.2 billion in credit losses, up from $1.2 billion in the quarter a year earlier. Delinquent loans rose to 1.7 percent of all single-family loans — double the level last fall.

Fannie Mae owned more than 67,500 foreclosed properties at the end of September, up 25 percent from the end of June. Shares fell 4 cents to 70 cents in afternoon trading.

NY TIMES

September 30, 1999
Fannie Mae Eases Credit To Aid Mortgage Lending
By STEVEN A. HOLMES

In a move that could help increase home ownership rates among minorities and low-income consumers, the Fannie Mae Corporation is easing the credit requirements on loans that it will purchase from banks and other lenders.

The action, which will begin as a pilot program involving 24 banks in 15 markets -- including the New York metropolitan region -- will encourage those banks to extend home mortgages to individuals whose credit is generally not good enough to qualify for conventional loans. Fannie Mae officials say they hope to make it a nationwide program by next spring.
Fannie Mae, the nation's biggest underwriter of home mortgages, has been under increasing pressure from the Clinton Administration to expand mortgage loans among low and moderate income people and felt pressure from stock holders to maintain its phenomenal growth in profits.
In addition, banks, thrift institutions and mortgage companies have been pressing Fannie Mae to help them make more loans to so-called subprime borrowers. These borrowers whose incomes, credit ratings and savings are not good enough to qualify for conventional loans, can only get loans from finance companies that charge much higher interest rates -- anywhere from three to four percentage points higher than conventional loans.

''Fannie Mae has expanded home ownership for millions of families in the 1990's by reducing down payment requirements,'' said Franklin D. Raines, Fannie Mae's chairman and chief executive officer. ''Yet there remain too many borrowers whose credit is just a notch below what our underwriting has required who have been relegated to paying significantly higher mortgage rates in the so-called subprime market.''

Demographic information on these borrowers is sketchy. But at least one study indicates that 18 percent of the loans in the subprime market went to black borrowers, compared to 5 per cent of loans in the conventional loan market.

In moving, even tentatively, into this new area of lending, Fannie Mae is taking on significantly more risk, which may not pose any difficulties during flush economic times. But the government-subsidized corporation may run into trouble in an economic downturn, prompting a government rescue similar to that of the savings and loan industry in the 1980's.

''From the perspective of many people, including me, this is another thrift industry growing up around us,'' said Peter Wallison a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. ''If they fail, the government will have to step up and bail them out the way it stepped up and bailed out the thrift
industry.''

Under Fannie Mae's pilot program, consumers who qualify can secure a mortgage with an interest rate one percentage point above that of a conventional, 30-year fixed rate mortgage of less than $240,000 -- a rate that currently averages about 7.76 per cent. If the borrower makes his or her monthly payments on time for two years, the one percentage point premium is dropped.

Fannie Mae, the nation's biggest underwriter of home mortgages, does not lend money directly to consumers. Instead, it purchases loans that banks make on what is called the secondary market. By expanding the type of loans that it will buy, Fannie Mae is hoping to spur banks to make more loans to people with less-than-stellar credit ratings.

Fannie Mae officials stress that the new mortgages will be extended to all potential borrowers who can qualify for a mortgage. But they add that the move is intended in part to increase the number of minority and low income home owners who tend to have worse credit ratings than non-Hispanic whites.

Home ownership has, in fact, exploded among minorities during the economic boom of the 1990's. The number of mortgages extended to Hispanic applicants jumped by 87.2 per cent from 1993 to 1998, according to Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies. During that same period the number of African Americans who got mortgages to buy a home increased by 71.9 per cent and the number of Asian Americans by 46.3 per cent.

In contrast, the number of non-Hispanic whites who received loans for homes increased by 31.2 per cent.
Despite these gains, home ownership rates for minorities continue to lag behind non-Hispanic whites, in part because blacks and Hispanics in particular tend to have on average worse credit ratings.
In July, the Department of Housing and Urban Development proposed that by the year 2001, 50 percent of Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac's portfolio be made up of loans to low and moderate-income borrowers. Last year, 44 percent of the loans Fannie Mae purchased were from these groups.
The change in policy also comes at the same time that HUD is investigating allegations of racial discrimination in the automated underwriting systems used by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to determine the credit-worthiness of credit applicants.

Expect a Rally

Markets, whether they are equity, bond, or futures focused are most successful when risks are removed from the marketplace. We witnessed that over the weekend with Fannie and Freddie moving into conservatorship. This weeks economic numbers may fall on deaf ears as markets should rally throughout the week with all of the liquidity currently sitting idle being moving into action.

Release Date & Time
Economic Indicator
Consensus Estimate
Analysis

Mon. Sept. 8
Fannie and Freddie will dominate mortgage trading. Expect to see sizeble gains with the FMN 4.5, 5.0 5.5, 6.0, 6.5 for both Fannie and Ginnie instruments.

Tue. Sept. 9, 10:00 a.m. ET
July Wholesale Inventories
+0.7% vs. last +1.1%
This bit of old, stale macro-economic data will likely do nothing more than take up space on this week’s calendar. Expect a continued rally with Fannie and Ginnie instruments.

Tue. Sept. 9,
Most mortgage-backed securities “roll” to October delivery
This is a standard monthly administrative function of the mortgage market. The impact of this event is already reflected on most investors’ rate sheets.

Wed. Sept. 10,
Thurs. Sept. 11, 8:30 a.m. ET
Initial jobless claims for the week ended 9/6
Down 4,000
This report will likely have little, if any impact on direction of mortgage interest rates today.

Thurs. Sept. 11, 1:00 p.m. ET
Treasury auctions estimated $11 bil. 10-year notes.

Fri. Sept. 12, 8:30 a.m. ET
Aug. Retail Sales
Ex. Auto
+0.2% vs. last -0.1%
-0.2% vs. last +0.4%
Major incentives from auto manufacturers and sharp discounting from retailers likely combined to nudge headline retail sales higher last month. Slumping labor market conditions and high energy costs probably took a toll on the ex. auto component of this data set. If my assessment proves correct, this report will have little, if any impact on the direction of mortgage interest rates today.

Fri. Sept. 12, 8:30 a.m. ET
Aug. Producer Price Index
Core Rate
-0.5% vs. last +1.2%
+0.2% vs. last +0.7%
Energy and other commodities fell sharply during the month. Few doubt headline and core inflation (a value that excludes the volatile food and energy components) at the producer level remained benign in August.

Mon. Sept. 15, 9:15 a.m. ET
Aug. Industrial Production &
Capacity Utilization
-0.2% vs. last +0.2%
79.7 vs. last 79.9
The modest expected decline in both elements of this data set will likely have little if any impact on the direction of mortgage interest rates today.

As a partner of mine often says, Be Well.

The Domino's Continue to Fall....From GSE to GCE

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are no longer Government "Sponsored" Entities, but Government "Controlled" Entities. The following series of statements were made by Secretary Henry M. Paulson, Jr. on Treasury and Federal Housing Finance Agency Action to Protect Financial Markets and Taxpayers
Good morning. I’m joined here by Jim Lockhart, Director of the new independent regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, FHFA.
In July, Congress granted the Treasury, the Federal Reserve and FHFA new authorities with respect to the GSEs, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Since that time, we have closely monitored financial market and business conditions and have analyzed in great detail the current financial condition of the GSEs – including the ability of the GSEs to weather a variety of market conditions going forward. As a result of this work, we have determined that it is necessary to take action.
Since this difficult period for the GSEs began, I have clearly stated three critical objectives: providing stability to financial markets, supporting the availability of mortgage finance, and protecting taxpayers – both by minimizing the near term costs to the taxpayer and by setting policymakers on a course to resolve the systemic risk created by the inherent conflict in the GSE structure.
Based on what we have learned about these institutions over the last four weeks – including what we learned about their capital requirements – and given the condition of financial markets today, I concluded that it would not have been in the best interest of the taxpayers for Treasury to simply make an equity investment in these enterprises in their current form.
The four steps we are announcing today are the result of detailed and thorough collaboration between FHFA, the U.S. Treasury, and the Federal Reserve.
We examined all options available, and determined that this comprehensive and complementary set of actions best meets our three objectives of market stability, mortgage availability and taxpayer protection. Throughout this process we have been in close communication with the GSEs themselves. I have also consulted with Members of Congress from both parties and I appreciate their support as FHFA, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury have moved to address this difficult issue.
Before I turn to Jim to discuss the action he is taking today, let me make clear that these two institutions are unique. They operate solely in the mortgage market and are therefore more exposed than other financial institutions to the housing correction. Their statutory capital requirements are thin and poorly defined as compared to other institutions. Nothing about our actions today in any way reflects a changed view of the housing correction or of the strength of other U.S. financial institutions.
I support the Director’s decision as necessary and appropriate and had advised him that conservatorship was the only form in which I would commit taxpayer money to the GSEs.
I appreciate the productive cooperation we have received from the boards and the management of both GSEs. I attribute the need for today’s action primarily to the inherent conflict and flawed business model embedded in the GSE structure, and to the ongoing housing correction. GSE managements and their Boards are responsible for neither. New CEOs supported by new non-executive Chairmen have taken over management of the enterprises, and we hope and expect that the vast majority of key professionals will remain in their jobs. I am particularly pleased that the departing CEOs, Dan Mudd and Dick Syron, have agreed to stay on for a period to help with the transition.
I have long said that the housing correction poses the biggest risk to our economy. It is a drag on our economic growth, and at the heart of the turmoil and stress for our financial markets and financial institutions. Our economy and our markets will not recover until the bulk of this housing correction is behind us. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are critical to turning the corner on housing. Therefore, the primary mission of these enterprises now will be to proactively work to increase the availability of mortgage finance, including by examining the guaranty fee structure with an eye toward mortgage affordability.
To promote stability in the secondary mortgage market and lower the cost of funding, the GSEs will modestly increase their MBS portfolios through the end of 2009. Then, to address systemic risk, in 2010 their portfolios will begin to be gradually reduced at the rate of 10 percent per year, largely through natural run off, eventually stabilizing at a lower, less risky size.
Treasury has taken three additional steps to complement FHFA’s decision to place both enterprises in conservatorship. First, Treasury and FHFA have established Preferred Stock Purchase Agreements, contractual agreements between the Treasury and the conserved entities. Under these agreements, Treasury will ensure that each company maintains a positive net worth. These agreements support market stability by providing additional security and clarity to GSE debt holders – senior and subordinated – and support mortgage availability by providing additional confidence to investors in GSE mortgage backed securities. This commitment will eliminate any mandatory triggering of receivership and will ensure that the conserved entities have the ability to fulfill their financial obligations. It is more efficient than a one-time equity injection, because it will be used only as needed and on terms that Treasury has set. With this agreement, Treasury receives senior preferred equity shares and warrants that protect taxpayers. Additionally, under the terms of the agreement, common and preferred shareholders bear losses ahead of the new government senior preferred shares.
These Preferred Stock Purchase Agreements were made necessary by the ambiguities in the GSE Congressional charters, which have been perceived to indicate government support for agency debt and guaranteed MBS. Our nation has tolerated these ambiguities for too long, and as a result GSE debt and MBS are held by central banks and investors throughout the United States and around the world who believe them to be virtually risk-free. Because the U.S. Government created these ambiguities, we have a responsibility to both avert and ultimately address the systemic risk now posed by the scale and breadth of the holdings of GSE debt and MBS.
Market discipline is best served when shareholders bear both the risk and the reward of their investment. While conservatorship does not eliminate the common stock, it does place common shareholders last in terms of claims on the assets of the enterprise.
Similarly, conservatorship does not eliminate the outstanding preferred stock, but does place preferred shareholders second, after the common shareholders, in absorbing losses. The federal banking agencies are assessing the exposures of banks and thrifts to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The agencies believe that, while many institutions hold common or preferred shares of these two GSEs, only a limited number of smaller institutions have holdings that are significant compared to their capital.
The agencies encourage depository institutions to contact their primary federal regulator if they believe that losses on their holdings of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac common or preferred shares, whether realized or unrealized, are likely to reduce their regulatory capital below “well capitalized." The banking agencies are prepared to work with the affected institutions to develop capital restoration plans consistent with the capital regulations.
Preferred stock investors should recognize that the GSEs are unlike any other financial institutions and consequently GSE preferred stocks are not a good proxy for financial institution preferred stock more broadly. By stabilizing the GSEs so they can better perform their mission, today’s action should accelerate stabilization in the housing market, ultimately benefiting financial institutions. The broader market for preferred stock issuance should continue to remain available for well-capitalized institutions.
The second step Treasury is taking today is the establishment of a new secured lending credit facility which will be available to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Banks. Given the combination of actions we are taking, including the Preferred Share Purchase Agreements, we expect the GSEs to be in a stronger position to fund their regular business activities in the capital markets. This facility is intended to serve as an ultimate liquidity backstop, in essence, implementing the temporary liquidity backstop authority granted by Congress in July, and will be available until those authorities expire in December 2009.
Finally, to further support the availability of mortgage financing for millions of Americans, Treasury is initiating a temporary program to purchase GSE MBS. During this ongoing housing correction, the GSE portfolios have been constrained, both by their own capital situation and by regulatory efforts to address systemic risk. As the GSEs have grappled with their difficulties, we’ve seen mortgage rate spreads to Treasuries widen, making mortgages less affordable for homebuyers. While the GSEs are expected to moderately increase the size of their portfolios over the next 15 months through prudent mortgage purchases, complementary government efforts can aid mortgage affordability. Treasury will begin this new program later this month, investing in new GSE MBS. Additional purchases will be made as deemed appropriate. Given that Treasury can hold these securities to maturity, the spreads between Treasury issuances and GSE MBS indicate that there is no reason to expect taxpayer losses from this program, and, in fact, it could produce gains. This program will also expire with the Treasury’s temporary authorities in December 2009.
Together, this four part program is the best means of protecting our markets and the taxpayers from the systemic risk posed by the current financial condition of the GSEs. Because the GSEs are in conservatorship, they will no longer be managed with a strategy to maximize common shareholder returns, a strategy which historically encouraged risk-taking. The Preferred Stock Purchase Agreements minimize current cash outlays, and give taxpayers a large stake in the future value of these entities. In the end, the ultimate cost to the taxpayer will depend on the business results of the GSEs going forward. To that end, the steps we have taken to support the GSE debt and to support the mortgage market will together improve the housing market, the US economy and the GSEs’ business outlook.
Through the four actions we have taken today, FHFA and Treasury have acted on the responsibilities we have to protect the stability of the financial markets, including the mortgage market, and to protect the taxpayer to the maximum extent possible.
And let me make clear what today’s actions mean for Americans and their families. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are so large and so interwoven in our financial system that a failure of either of them would cause great turmoil in our financial markets here at home and around the globe. This turmoil would directly and negatively impact household wealth: from family budgets, to home values, to savings for college and retirement. A failure would affect the ability of Americans to get home loans, auto loans and other consumer credit and business finance. And a failure would be harmful to economic growth and job creation. That is why we have taken these actions today.
While we expect these four steps to provide greater stability and certainty to market participants and provide long-term clarity to investors in GSE debt and MBS securities, our collective work is not complete. At the end of next year, the Treasury temporary authorities will expire, the GSE portfolios will begin to gradually run off, and the GSEs will begin to pay the government a fee to compensate taxpayers for the on-going support provided by the Preferred Stock Purchase Agreements. Together, these factors should give momentum and urgency to the reform cause. Policymakers must view this next period as a “time out” where we have stabilized the GSEs while we decide their future role and structure.
Because the GSEs are Congressionally-chartered, only Congress can address the inherent conflict of attempting to serve both shareholders and a public mission. The new Congress and the next Administration must decide what role government in general, and these entities in particular, should play in the housing market. There is a consensus today that these enterprises pose a systemic risk and they cannot continue in their current form. Government support needs to be either explicit or non-existent, and structured to resolve the conflict between public and private purposes. And policymakers must address the issue of systemic risk. I recognize that there are strong differences of opinion over the role of government in supporting housing, but under any course policymakers choose, there are ways to structure these entities in order to address market stability in the transition and limit systemic risk and conflict of purposes for the long-term. We will make a grave error if we don’t use this time out to permanently address the structural issues presented by the GSEs.
In the weeks to come, I will describe my views on long term reform. I look forward to engaging in that timely and necessary debate.
Look for additional releases over the next several days from Paulson and others to this and other GCE's matters. I would also expect announcements from the 4 major mortgage lending firms discussing hopefully business as usual or futher pullbacks on capacity or product depth.

Fannie & Freddie: "To Regulate or Not to Regulate... that is the Question"

As I write this piece, the current stock prices for Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) are sitting just off their 60’ year lows at $5.20 and $3.28 respectively. There has been a plethora of talk, both on Wall Street and those around Capital Hill as to what exactly should and can be done with these Government Sponsored Entities (GSE's).

Here’s a question; Assuming these entities are “too big to fail” (or perhaps too important) which I believe they are, it begs to question who really benefits if these firms are not privatized.

My thoughts: Both of these companies have some of the largest lobbyist groups in the country. The non-balance sheet payrolls these firms have include very senior officials in both branches and on both major governmental parties. In fact the GSE's have some of the most impressive "paid" supporters of any industry.... and that’s pretty impressive considering the likes of the auto industry, oil, and others.

While the discussions may publicly revolve around the GSE’s ability to remain solvent or if necessary raise more capital to meet federal regulations as it relates to balance sheet ratio’s, a real challenge remains; Will the large number of people who receive a handout from these firms do the right thing, look themselves in the mirror and recognize the overwhelming benefits of taking these firms off of the national balance sheet or will greed and self interest prevail. Unfortunately, I believe we all quickly realized the answer to that question. So look for more shallow justification about the values and virtues of keeping the mission statement alive for Fannie and Freddie.

This week’s economic news:

Release Date & Time
Economic Indicator
Consensus
EstimateMy Analysis

Mon. Aug. 25, 10:00 a.m. ET
July Existing Home Sales
Up 0.8%
Certainly one month of data does not make a trend and no one is suggesting that the bottom has been reached in the housing sector – but if the consensus estimate is accurate, the July number may be a first small step in the right direction. Just kidding!!! This number is insignificant… most pundits are now in strong support of a lengthy recovery which may last till 2010.

Tue. Aug. 26, 10:00 a.m. ET
July New Home Sales
Down 1.3%
Most fixed income traders will take a pretty good look at this number. This data is expected to add one more hopeful sign to a growing number of signs that the worst of housing bubble may soon be behind us. While this is a narrow minded approach, the sales number that matches the forecast won’t likely influence the direction of mortgage interest rates much. A sales pace number showing a drop of 0.6% or less will probably put a little upward pressure on mortgage rates. My personal opinion is that the consensus estimate will likely prove to be too pessimistic this time around.

Tue. Aug. 26, 10:00 a.m. ET
Aug. Consumer Confidence
53.0 vs. last 51.9
Investors are always far more interested in what the consumer is actually doing -- than how they say they are feeling. Look for this data to have little, if any direct impact on the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates today.

Tue. Aug. 26, 2:00 p.m. ET
Minutes of Aug. 4th & 5th Federal Open Market Committee meeting released
While this document will likely do little more than reinforce mortgage investors’ conviction that the Fed will not hike short-term interest rates anytime in the foreseeable future, it will provide for some guidance for Wednesday and Thursday and a low volume trading week in the equities.

Wed. Aug. 27, 8:30 a.m. ET
July Durable Goods Orders
+0.1% vs. last +0.8%
July orders probably eked out a small gain on an uptick in demand for aircraft and auto manufacturers response to increased calls for more fuel efficient vehicles. This data will likely do little more than take up space on this week’s calendar.

Wed. Aug. 27, 1:00 p.m. ET
Treasury auctions $31 bil. of 2-year notes
It likely will be very difficult for mortgage interest rates to move to notably lower levels in the face of the deluge of supply coming in from Uncle Sam over the next two days.

Thurs. Aug. 28, 8:30 a.m. ET
1st revision to Q2 Gross Domestic Product
+2.7% vs. last +1.9%
New information released since the government made its initial estimate of the value of all the goods and services produced in the United States points to a sizeable upward revision here. Mortgage investors have already priced this expectation into their rate sheets.

Thurs. Aug. 28, 8:30 a.m. ET
Initial jobless claims for the week ended 8/23
Down 2,000
Unless this number is significantly lower, this report will likely have little, if any impact on direction of mortgage interest rates today.

Thurs. Aug. 28, 1:00 p.m. ET
Treasury auctions $21 bil. of 5-year notes
Wednesday’s $31 billion of 2-year notes and today’s big 5-year note offering will likely choke the thinly traded pre-holiday market. If my assessment proves accurate, it will be very difficult for mortgage interest or any fixed income products rates to move notably lower today.

Fri. Aug. 29, 8:30 a.m. ET
July Personal Income Spending PCE
Index 0.0 vs. last +0.1% 0.2% vs. last +0.6%+0.3% vs. last +0.3%
The few traders still at their desk will likely shrug off the income and spending figures but will bore in on the personal consumption expenditure index with laser-like intensity. A gain of more than 0.3% for this measure of inflation pressure at the consumer level will likely prod investors into pushing mortgage interest rate higher.

Fri. Aug. 29, 2:00 p.m. ET
US market will closes early for Labor Day Holiday