Much Needed Day Off

I hope this blog finds you and your family enjoying this holiday weekend. While I spent most of it indoors catching up, it's a good feeling to spend a little time at the office without taking a hundred phone calls.

Economic Calendar

Release Date & Time
Economic Indicator
Consensus Estimate
My Analysis

Mon. Sept. 7,
The mortgage market is closed for the Labor Day Holiday

Tues. Sept. 8, 1:00 p.m. ET
Treasury auctions $13 bil. of 3-year notes
The relatively short duration of this offering against a backdrop of near-term benign inflation concerns should draw strong participation levels from domestic as well as foreign investors.

Wed. Sept. 9, 1:00 p.m. ET
Treasury auctions $20 bil. of 10-year notes
The Treasury should have little problem unloading this supply. That said, investors may demand a little higher yield than marketed. If so, anticipate bonds and MBS yields to creep higher as well.

Thurs. Sept. 10, 8:30 a.m. ET
Initial jobless claims for the week ended 9/5
Down 5,000
The anticipated decline in last week’s jobless claims will probably be largely shrugged off by mortgage investors resulting in little, if any change to the current level of interest rates.

Thurs. Sept. 10, 1:00 p.m. ET
Treasury auctions $12 bil. of 30-year bonds
This offering will likely need a little buying support from the Fed to keep the yield from skipping higher. A poorly bid auction here will almost certainly put some upward pressure on all kinds of interest rates.

Thurs. Sept. 10 before the close (Mortgage Foced)
The current delivery month of most mortgage-backed securities will “roll” to Oct.
The roughly 37.5 basis-point price reduction associated with this standard monthly adjustment has already been factored into most rate sheets.

Fri. Sept. 11, 10:00 a.m. ET
July Wholesale Inventories
-1.0% vs. last -1.7%
This old stale tidbit of macro-economic data will likely have little, if any direct impact on the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates today.

Look for a more lengthly BLOG later this week on where I believe the US Housing market is headed in 2010.