Monday, June 15, 2009

Weekly Economic News Only

Given the madness in the equity markets the last three weeks I think investors take a breather and take-it-all-in. I see stocks declining for the week, bonds improving. Mortgage rates should continue to recover some and perhaps peek by Wednesday.

Release Date & Time
Economic Indicator
Consensus Estimate
My Analysis

Mon. June 15
Big Bag of Nothin'

Tue. June, 16 8:30 a.m. ET
May Producer Prices
Core Rate
+0.4% vs. last +1.5%
+0.1% vs. last +0.1%
The modest expected rise in the headline producer price index will not likely create much concern among investors. More importantly the core rate, a value excluding the volatile food and energy components, likely remained extremely low.

Tue. June 16, 8:30 a.m. ET
May Housing Starts &
Building Permits
+6.0%
+0.4%
The outsized gain in the May housing starts figure will be largely offset by the fact that building permits, an indication of future construction activity, remains within a whisper of its lowest level since 1959.

Tue. June 16, 9:15 a.m. ET
May Industrial Production &
Capacity Utilization
-0.5% vs. last -0.5%
68.6 vs. last 69.1
The massive decline in the manufacturing sector is expected to continue unabated during the month of May.

Wed. June 17, 8:30 a.m. ET
May Consumer Price Index
Core rate
+0.3% vs. last +0.6%
+0.2% vs. last +0.3%
Gasoline prices surged in May resulting in a modest gain for headline consumer inflation. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, core inflation at the consumer level remains near multi-month lows.

Thurs. June 18, 8:30 a.m. ET
Initial jobless claims for the week ended 6/13
Down 10,000
Look for this data to have little, if any meaningful impact investors discount today’s decline in the face of ramped-up expectations for a strong surge in jobless claims once the ramifications of the auto industry bankruptcies begin to work through the economy.

Thurs. June 18, 10:00 a.m. ET
May Leading Indicators
+0.8% vs. last 1.0%
This index, created by the private Conference Board, is considered by many to provide an indication of the economy’s likely path over the next three- to six-months. The majority of the upward surge in this index was likely created by the strong rally in the stock markets. If stock prices are falling to this point in the week, it is likely most mortgage investors will shrug off this report. If, on the other hand, stock prices show strength in the early part of the week, a reading of 0.8% or higher for this index will likely encourage mortgage investors to push interest rates incrementally higher.

Fri. June 19,