It's Memorial Holiday Already?

I have a question. How did we get to May already and what the hell happened to the first 4 months of 2009? We are quickly moving into housing season and while inventories may appear at historic levels, keep in mind that many of the largest banks are only now working through their inventory.

I expect levels to raise even further. I believe the next 4 months will be critical in how quickly or extended this recession will end/last. If inventories move, capital and purchase confidence will move forward to recovery. Should the press make a big deal of the historic inventory levels and potential home buyers sit on the sidelines waiting for "free houses" our economy could be in for a real challenge if not to fall directly into a recession. Keep in mind, we are still sitting at almost 10% unemployement.

Economic Calendar

Release Date & Time
Economic Indicator
Consensus Estimate
My Analysis

Wed. May 20, before the end of the day
The Fed wraps up three-days of announced purchases in the Treasury market. Prior to this week’s operations -- the Fed has spent $101 billion of the $300 billion they have authorized for direct Treasury security purchases. Today’s event should prove to be supportive of steady to perhaps incrementally lower mortgage interest rates.


Wed. May 20, 2:00 p.m. ET
The Fed releases the minutes of their April 28-29 meeting
This event will likely do nothing more than take up space on this week’s calendar. The Fed chose to leave short-term interest rates unchanged and refrained from increasing the size of their “war chest” for the direct purchase of Treasury obligations and mortgage-backed securities during last month’s meeting. It doesn’t get much more boring than that.

Thurs. May 21, 8:30 a.m. ET
Initial jobless claims for the week ended 5/16
Down 7,000
This time around first-time jobless benefit claims are expected to post a very small decline. Look for this data to have little, if any meaningful impact on the mortgage market today.


Thurs. May 21, 10:00 a.m. ET
Apr. Leading Indicators
Up 0.8% vs. last -0.3%
This index, created by the private Conference Board, is considered by many to provide an indication of the economy’s likely path over the next three- to six-months. The majority of the upward surge in this index was likely created by the strong rally in the stock markets. If stock prices are falling to this point in the week, it is likely most mortgage investors will shrug off this report. If, on the other hand, stock prices show strength in the early part of the week, a reading of 0.8% or higher for this index will likely encourage mortgage investors to push interest rates incrementally higher.

Fri. May 22, 2:00 p.m. ET
The equity markets (including bonds) closes early for the Memorial Day Holiday

Mon. May 25,
The markets is closed for the Memorial Day Holiday


If you have an American Flag, display it this weekend. If you don't, go buy one.
Be proud and thank the men and women who serve our country.