Holiday Focused Week

The next 10 days are fairly busy on the economic front. I'll keep this fairly light.

The Economic Calendar for the week of Monday, November 24th through Monday, December 1st, 2008

Release Date & Time
Economic Indicator
Consensus Estimate
My Analysis
Mon. Nov. 24, 8:30 a.m. ET
Oct. Existing Home Sales -2.5%
Most investors expected sluggish economic growth and an unsettled labor market took a toll on the pace of existing home sales last month. They were right and mortgage fell rates today.

Mon. Nov. 24, 1:00 p.m. ET
Treasury auctions $36 bil. of
2-year notes
Most observers believe demand will be solid for this debt offering from Uncle Sam. If so, this event should prove to be supportive of steady to perhaps fractionally lower mortgage interest rates.

Tue. Nov. 25, 8:30 a.m. ET
2nd estimate Q3
Gross Domestic Product
-0.5% vs. last -0.3%
Previously released economic data strongly suggests economic activity cooled sharply during the quarter. A downward revision to the initial estimate will not likely surprise anyone – rendering this data toothless in terms of its impact on the direction of mortgage interest rates today.

Tue. Nov. 25, 10:00 a.m. ET
Nov. Consumer Confidence
38.0 vs. last 38.0
No one will be surprised to see that gloomy news from the economy, rising joblessness and plunging stock markets have all taken a toll on consumer confidence. This data will likely draw little more than a passing glance from mortgage investors.

Tue. Nov. 25, 1:00 p.m. ET
Treasury auctions $26 bil. of
5-year notes
The majority of analysts believe this offering will be well bid. If so, it will likely have little impact on the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates. If analysts are proven to be overly optimistic (as I think they likely will be) the yield of these notes will rise -- which will cause mortgage interest rates to move higher as well

Wed. Nov. 26, 8:30 a.m. ET
Oct. Personal Income
Spending
Core PCE Index
+0.1% vs. last +0.2%
-0.9% vs. last -0.3%
0.0 vs. last +0.2%
If the consensus estimate proves accurate, incomes will post their smallest gain in three months while a sharp drop in spending is likely setting retailers up for the worst holiday season in six years. The decline in income and spending combined with the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation at the consumer level, the personal consumption expenditure index, showing that core inflation pressures are nowhere to be seen -- will all likely be viewed as a positive for the prospects of steady mortgage interest rates today.

Wed. Nov. 26, 8:30 a.m. ET
Initial jobless claims for the week ended 11/22
Down 7,000
The modest expected decline in the initial jobless claims figure will likely draw nothing more than a passing glance from mortgage investors today.

Wed. Nov. 26, 8:30 a.m. ET
Oct. Durable Goods
-2.6% vs. last +0.9%
If the consensus estimate proves accurate, look for the news to push stock prices lower creating a “flight-to-quality” in the mortgage market which will be supportive of slightly lower rates.
Wed. Nov. 26, 10:00 a.m. ET

Oct. New Home Sales
-2.17%
The combination of weak economic conditions and tight credit likely restrict the pace of new home sales in October. Look for this data to have little, if any impact on the direction of mortgage interest rates today.

Wed. Nov. 26, 2:00 p.m. ET
All markets closes early

Thurs. Nov. 27
Market closed for the Thanksgiving Holiday. I wish you and your family a safe and enjoyable holiday.

Fri. Nov. 28, 2:00 p.m. ET
Fixed income markets closes early

Mon. Dec. 1, 8:30 a.m. ET
Nov. Institute of Supply Mgmt.
37.6 vs. last 38.9
Everybody knows the manufacturing sector is weak so today’s report will only define the degree of weakness. Look for this data to have little, if any impact on the direction of mortgage interest rates today.