Taking Account

I am writing this morning from Houston where I have spent the last 72 hours trying to explain to my family, my dad's friends and his concerned golfing partners that despite his good health.... he still had a cardiac event the evening of July 4th. He is in CCU, and battling for his life. So while my focus has not been on the state of the union, the existing housing crisis, the price of oil, the mismanagement of Regional Banks, or the sagging dollar; that does not mean it hasn't been on another commodity... our time. Life, like money, is best utilized when it is spent wisely.

This week's economic calendar is as follows:

Release Date & Time
Economic Indicator
Consensus Estimate
Analysis

Mon. July 7,

Tue. July 8, 10:00 a.m. ET
May Pending Home Sales
-3.0% vs. last +6.6%
Most analysts anticipate a little “give back” in May after April’s surprising surge. If the consensus estimate is accurate, investors will likely view this data as slightly mortgage market friendly. In the unlikely event the actual number comes in stronger-than-expected (a slump of 2.5% or less) look for mortgage interest rates to creep fractionally higher.

Tue. July 8, 10:00 a.m. ET
May Wholesale Inventories
+0.7% vs. last +1.3%
Traders holiday sunburns will likely draw far more of their attention than this data set will.

Wed. July 9
Void of economic news

Thurs. July 10 8:30 a.m. ET
Initial jobless claims for the week ended 7/5
Down 14,000
Most investors tend to discount some of the jobless claims data this time of year to compensate for the volatility surrounding auto manufacturers’ temporary plant shutdowns for new model year retooling. A decline of 14,000 or less in the number of jobless claims filed last week will tend to support steady to perhaps fractionally lower mortgage interest rates. If jobless claims fell by more than 15,000 last week look for investors to push mortgage notes and fixed income products to move their rates higher.

Thurs. July 10, 1:00 p.m. ET
Treasury Dept. auctions
10-year inflation indexed securities

Mortgage investors will likely pay a little more attention to this auction than normal. These securities will likely serve as a bellwether index for the longer-term trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates. If the yield on the 10-year inflation-indexed securities should rise look for mortgage interest rates to rise as well -- while a steady to lower yield on these securities will likely indicate the trend trajectory will favor steady to fractionally lower mortgage rates ahead.

Thurs. July 10, afternoon
The current delivery month for most mortgage-backed securities will “roll” to August

This is a standard monthly administrative function of the mortgage market. The price impact on this change from July to August delivery is roughly 25 basis points and is already reflected on most of your investors’ rate sheets.

Fri. July 11
Empty


Mon. July 14
Empty